2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

 "Imperialism"
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Invasion,  War,  Cold War 2.0)

Date	24 February 2022 - Present
Location	Donbass,  Kyiv,  Ukraine,  Russia,  Europe
Planners	Vladimir Putin, NATO?
Participants	Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, DPR, LPR
Sponsors	NATO, US, China
Deaths	40000
Injured (non-fatal)	30000
Interest of	'Burning Blogger of Bedlam', Lyudmyla Denisova, Jacob Dreizin, Daria Kaleniuk, Rebekah Koffler, Patrick Lancaster, Joe Lauria, Lila Rajiva, Scott Ritter, Wagner Group
Interests	• Encirclement of Russia • NATO/Propaganda • War in Donbass • US/Exceptionalism • Russophobia
Filmed by	CNN, Patrick Lancaster
Subpage	•2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Incorporation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia into Russia •2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Legacy •2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Premature death •2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Preparation •2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Wagner coup attempt •2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/War Crimes
Description	In a new episode of Cold War 2.0 Russia forcefully halted NATO expansion by invading Ukraine, with financial support of China. Although the EU and US denounced the "war crimes" as multiple cities were bombed, several countries opted less severe sanctions to keep importing diamonds and luxury goods and gas (and their loaned money) from Russia, seemingly creating a new iron curtain in Eastern Europe.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022 when Russia launched a large-scale military operation against its south-west neighbour Ukraine involving forces from western Russia, Belarus and Crimea, a severe escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started in 2014 with the 2014 Ukraine coup.

Russian president Vladimir Putin escalated talks with ultimatums to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in 2021, but invaded when Russia's demands were not met. There is, however, a certain probability that this move was also necessary to preempt a military offensive by the Ukrainian forces against the Donbass region. In addition, on 18th February, Ukrainian forces increased their shelling of the separatist regions significantly; with more than a thousand, possibly several thousand shells fired on areas inhabited by civilians that live in the region.

Before the start of the invasion, rearmament with nuclear weapons was brought up as a possibility by Ukrainian government officials, along with other statements to the effect that nuclear disarmament was a mistake, dating back at least to Oleksandr Turchynov in 2019.

Official narrative

On 25 February 2022, Wikipedia wrote:

The basic official narrative explained with history but omitting relevant geopolitical realities (also omitting for example, what Zelensky's promises were before he was elected, which was to make peace in the east )

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties.

In 1994, Ukraine agreed to abandon its nuclear arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on condition that Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States would provide assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.

Five years later, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve.

Concerns

Firstly, the attack came at a time when the COVID-19 fear narrative was falling apart rather spectacularly. The "Omicron" variant understood to have a very low IFR, and official statistics were showing that the COVID jabs increased risk of omicron infection. For this reason a change of topic was opportune.

War Preparation

Full article: Cold War 2.0

In 2008, Russian president Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine's potential accession to NATO.

Interestingly enough, CCM media outlet The Economist painted Putin in a much different light than former President George W. Bush, who invaded a country which was never linked to the casus belli (9-11), possibly hinting NATO may still set foot on Ukrainian soil.

Following weeks of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement (2013–2014), pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition on 21 February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election. The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president. Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. The unrest was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the War in Donbass, which started in April 2014 with the creation of the Russia-backed quasi-states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

Back in 2014 Russia had contingency plans to do a full, or part scale invasion of Ukraine at the beginning the civil war, since it mobilised a sufficient number of troops and put specialised forces for the pacification of populations on notice (for possible deployment) - according to a RUSI analysis from April 2014.

An American advisor to the Ukrainian military remarked that: "Since the latter end of 2018, [...] the West seems to be paying more attention to the Ukrainian conflict."

Putin's speech on 21 February 2022, reiterating many points of his July 2021 article about the "Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", which was made required reading in the Russian army. He also warns western military action against this Special Military Operation would result in an extreme, violent Russian response - Sky News.

Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting Russian irredentism and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies."

Encirclement of Russia

Full article: Encirclement of Russia

Since the end of the Cold War NATO is getting closer to Russia known as the encirclement of Russia. After increased militarisation and so called colour revolutions (backed by the establishment in NATO countries) in Eastern Europe, Russia was faced with a hostile regime in Kyiv, seeking NATO membership and military aid from NATO. Ukraine fell apart and three regions (Crimea and the Donbass) declared independance. One of those (Crimea) hosts a major Russian military base and port to the Black Sea at Sevastopol. Although 30% of the population speak Russian there, the use of the language was outlawed by the Ukrainian government in Kyiv, which was at this time described as a US puppet regime. Kyiv's use of the Azov Battalion was deemed highly controversial but a third rail topic in western corporate media, calling the claims of Putin that he was fighting Nazis ludicrous. This was seen as humiliation by Russia and Putin called for an "end to the Russian Genocide in the Donbass", part of Russian propaganda to legitimize the invasion.

In 2022, western media revealed the CIA had increased a secret U.S.-based training initiative for Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel. That offensive division of the program, started somewhere around in 2015, also included instruction in firearms, camouflage techniques and covert communications.

Military Scenarios

United States

"Figure 2a

"Figure 2b"

"Figure 2c"

The Washington D.C-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released a strategic paper on the 13th of January previewing the invasion. The paper argued the US military to openly supply Ukraine with a "Twenty-First Century Lend-Lease Act" to provide Ukraine with war materiel at no cost and the CIA to plan and execute covert operations (ironically called "special operations" in the paper) while letting the Ukrainians stall for time.

“The Kremlin has at least six possible military options:

1. Redeploy some of its ground forces away from the Ukrainian border—at least temporarily—if negotiations are successful but continue to aid pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine.

2. Send conventional Russian troops into the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as unilateral “peacekeepers” and refuse to withdraw them until peace talks end successfully and Kiev agrees to implement the Minsk Accords.

3. Seize Ukrainian territory as far west as the Dnepr River to use as a bargaining chip or incorporate this new territory fully into the Russian Federation. This option is represented in Figure 2a.

4. Seize Ukrainian territory up to the Dnepr River and seize an additional belt of land (to include Odessa) that connects Russian territory with the breakaway Transdniestria Republic and separates Ukraine from any access to the Black Sea. The Kremlin would incorporate these new lands into Russia and ensure that the rump Ukrainian statelet remains economically unviable.

5. Seize only a belt of land between Russia and Transdniestria (including Mariupol, Kherson, and Odessa) to secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and block Ukraine’s access to the sea, while avoiding major combat over Kiev and Kharkiv. This option is represented in Figure 2b.

6. Seize all of Ukraine and, with Belarus, announce the formation of a new tripartite Slavic union of Great, Little, and White Russians (Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians). This option would involve operations represented in Figure 2a as “phase one,” with Figure 2c representing “phase two” of this option.”
Center for Strategic and International Studies (13 January 2022) 

Although most western media outlets kept emphasizing the slow advance of the Russian troops, CSIS placed the speed into historial comparison; "Mechanized attacks are not always as rapid as attackers hope. Two of the quickest movements of armoured forces in history—German general Heinz Guderian’s punch through the Ardennes and seizure of Dunkirk in May 1940, and the U.S. and coalition advance from the Kuwait border to Baghdad in 2003—each averaged approximately 20 miles per day. Movement against a determined foe in winter conditions with limited daylight could reduce that rate of advance significantly." The cities of Kharkiv and Odesa are highlighted as the only cities to be required to seize until entering Kiev for logistic purposes, as the other cities would require an excessive amount of force, which would halt the armoured advance of the Russian troops.

CSIS also wrote "the initial attack will likely be well supported with artillery and air support, leading to several breakthroughs in Ukrainian defenses. However, once combat units expend their initial stores of ammunition, fuel, and food, the real test of Russian military strength will begin—including Russia’s ability to sustain the advance of a massive mechanized force over hundreds of miles of territory. Kiev and the Dnepr River crossings are at least 150 to 200 road miles from the Russian border, and its army will require at least several days of fighting to reach them. Before that, they will undoubtedly have to resupply, refuel, and replace combat losses of men and material at least once, which will require an operational pause."

The Ukrainian military command was advised to focus on halting Russian advance until thaw sets in and European countries openly ship better defensive weapons to the front lines and wait for economic sanctions to turn Russia bankrupt. The eerie consequence many Ukrainians would be slaughtered by a swift, and especially brutal Russian reaction to Ukrainian resistance was to be expected.

Russia

A former Russian general interviewed for the German version of RT, based on his own analysis, said that most likely the whole of Ukraine will be claimed by Russia, since: "If even one square meter of land remains under the rule of the current Kiev regime, it will immediately be filled with weapons, and they will fire from there at Russia, at the Russians."

Military Aid

Dilyana Gaytandzhieva found that mid-2019 the US military was giving out contracts of a certain size for ammunition for Russian-made arms which are still widely in use in the former Soviet block; ammunition for assault rifles, pistols, sniper rifles and machine guns - as well as Grad rockets.

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO." On 24 March 2021, Zelenskyy signed the Decree No. 117/2021 approving the "strategy of de-occupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people". American historian Timothy Snyder described Putin's ideas as imperialism. British journalist Edward Lucas described it as historical revisionism. Other observers have described the Russian leadership as having a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Apart from the NATO countries, Australia, Japan and South Korea gave weapons to Ukraine. According to both sides, over 36.000 foreign mercenaries alone have joined the war as well.

PMCs

Erik Prince, former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, founder of the private military company Blackwater was reported to be planning to establish a $10 billion PMC in Ukraine.. Prince is reported to be "very tight with top agency officials" for over a decade, up to and including during the Trump administration, carrying a 'green badge' that allows contractors to access CIA installations and being in Langley regularly to meet with senior people in the Directorate of Operations (running covert operations). The plan was reported by Time magazine to be stonewalled by elements in the Joe Biden administrations and CIA officers arresting Prince his associates in Washington D.C. The Russian-based Wagner Group has been accused of trying to assassinate President Zelenskyy in Kiev.

NATO

“I asked them – are you with us?” Zelensky said. “They answered that they are with us, but they don’t want to take us into the alliance. I’ve asked 27 leaders of Europe, if Ukraine will be in NATO, I’ve asked them directly — all are afraid and did not respond We were left by ourselves. Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody. Who is ready to give Ukraine guarantees of NATO membership? Honestly, everybody is afraid”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  RT (24 February 2022) 

Ukraine has been left to fend for itself according to President Zelenskyy, with NATO refusing to enter Ukraine according to him, upon request. The Ukrainian president even publicly suggested to negotiate for Swiss-styled neutrality to not join NATO per law. This appears to pave the way more for military spending into the 2020s.

NATO openly ships weapons (and credit) in support of Ukraine. At the end of April 2022, Rheinmetall wanted to send 88 Leopard 1 to Ukraine (along with other numbers for other weapons systems). The use of the number 88 and it's connotation and symbology was noted by Florian Rötzer. The Chief Operating Officer for Rheinmetall get's lost for four days in mid May 2022. While German press writes mostly clueless articles about the matter, a Swiss publication notes: "Kutz (Thorsten Kutz) may have been an appealing kidnapping target for Russian agents because of his insider knowledge." (in another incident, possibly unrelated, the drinks at a social gathering of the SPD are spiked in July 2022)

Reactions

“The bitter truth is that Washington's foreign policy establishment never actually considered Zelensky - or his predecessor Poroshenko - to be allies or partners of the United States. Overflowing with a toxic mix of ignorance, arrogance, and extreme cynicism, Washington's elites have always viewed Ukraine as a tool to "regime-change" a Russia that, after its post-Yeltsin recovery, would no longer take its direction from them. The false gods of American exceptionalism are jealous ones indeed.”
Daniel McAdams (26 February 2022) 

“Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks, but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people”
Joe Biden (2 March 2022) 

There are multiple former CIA personnel supporting both sides, placing questions what their purpose is. * Postal workers in Poland were to be trained by soldiers to use weapons following the war. Dmitry Medvedev, once regarded as a liberal and technocrat, has changed his rethoric in foreign affairs significantly.

Censorship

War reporters, such as Patrick Lancaster were demonitized or censored from channels like YouTube.

In an exclusive interview on CGTN, Alfred de Zayas, UN's first independent expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, argues that colour revolutions are "all illegal," violating the UN Charter and customary international law. "An imperial arrogance and narcissism" is being revealed, says de Zayas, and "the poor Ukrainian people are now paying for this." China Global Television Network, 2 March 2022.

The EU decreed as of March, 2 that "distribution" of RT or Sputnik news is forbidden. Russia responded by expelling German journalists from their Deutsche Welle office in Moscow.

A case for the International Criminal Court?

Full article: International Criminal Court

Most US-backed countries such as the UK under Boris Johnson called the bombing of cities such as Charkov and Kyiv a war crime. The Council of Europe suspended Russia.

UN/Security Council

Full article: UN/Security Council

China denounced the use of the word "invasion" and accused the United States of agitating for war, and refused to vote for military action against Russia in the UN/Security Council. This geopolitical angle was not discussed widely in western corporate media, a continuation of a Cold War 2.0, where Russia and (since the 2010s) China have been working together to form a geopolitical force against the EU and the US. China increased their imports from Russia, effectively halting financial consequences for the first stages of the war.

The UN overweeningly assembly condemned Russia.

Partial mobilisation

On 21 September 2022, Vladimir Putin, in a speech to the Russian people, announced the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine:

Sanctions

Full article: Sanctions

In a telling way of how money changes people, several European countries refuse to implement sanctions although denouncing Russia's actions "war crimes". Italy and Belgium refused severe sanctions for Russian banking as "diamonds" and "luxury clothing" were deemed more important than Ukrainian lives. With China backing Russia in the UN Security Council, Ukraine appeared to be facing the same fate of African countries during the the imperialism of the 1900s as merely a toy in geopolitical games.

Nord Stream is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany. It includes two lines running from Vyborg to Greifswald forming original Nord Stream, and two lines under construction running from Ust-Luga to Greifswald termed Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 is owned and will be operated by Nord Stream 2 AG, a wholly owned subsidiary of Gazprom. In 2011, Nord Stream AG started evaluation of an expansion project consisting of two additional lines (later named Nord Stream 2) to increase the overall annual capacity up to 110 billion m3 (3.9 trillion cu ft). Following this invasion, certification of NS2 was suspended indefinitely by Germany.

Fear of counter-sanctions

This is auto-translated text of a Telegram post in Russian. The text was shared on the German version of RT on 12th March 2022, writing: "A usually well-informed journalist writes on Telegram, citing the Russian Foreign Ministry". It could be understood as an answer to a Foreign Affairs article from 25th February 2022.

Germany imports 30% of its oil and 50% of its gas supply from Russia, making it vulnerable to counter-sanctions and depleting its own reserves as oil and gas prices soared.

Energy Crisis

A Russia–EU gas dispute escalated in March 2022. The EU refused to pay Russia's Gazprom (after Russia tried to counter sanctions by ordering payment in Rubles) as a way of countering the economic diplomacy of sanctions of the European countries that almost caused the Russian Central Bank to collapse. In June, Russia cut the flow of gas by more than half, and continued to stop it and resume it by half or more for at least 8 months. On 26 September of the same year, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines both ruptured with evidence of sabotage, worsening an energy crisis in Western Europe that got increasingly worse in [[2021]. There events fitted conspicuously well with the long planned supranational deep state strategy to dismantle industrial economies under the pretext of a green agenda.

Sanctions against China?

The Atlantic Council called Washington D.C to prepare sanctions also against China as punishment for its support of Russia.

World Economic Forum

Full article: World Economic Forum

Klaus Schwab has boasted of Putin's inclusion in the WEF Global Leaders for Tomorrow deep state recruitment network, but the WEF removed their page of Putin following the invasion, and cut ties to Russia shortly thereafter.

Legacy

De-Dollarization?

Full article: De-Dollarization

Russia would find other customers for its oil and gas if sanctions of NATO countries in this area take a hold, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. This could lead to increased bypassing of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, probably involving an increase of (already existing) credit swaps between Russia and other nations such as China and BRICS. The world's reserve currency is the backbone of our global financial system which would be severely shaken if global demand for the US dollar decreases, US deficit spending limited and the practice of bilateral credit swaps be accepted more widely.

New Iron Curtain?

By May 2022 rumors started to circulate that Poland may want to annex parts of Ukraine.

Belt and Road Initiative

Full article: Belt and Road Initiative

The vicious circle that the western politicians represented by the European Council didn't want to cut off Russia from the worldwide banking systems partly because Russians owed their countries too much money, is a similar scenario that scholars have painted as a possible choke-hold in case China invaded Taiwan or Hong Kong with their lending to many Asian states.

Media censorship

Full article: Media censorship

Russia Today's websites in many areas around the world, since early/mid March, are giving a 403 error after (supposedly successful) DDOS check. This is notable in light of the alleged Bucha massacre by Russian troops at the end of March 2022.

The consolidation of the media has been further strengthened by the mass panic in reaction to the invasion causing more alternative media funded by countries such as Russia to be banned from accessing without a VPN. Euronews reported that the European Federation of Journalists (or EFJ) said it feared the effects of this spiral of censorship on freedom of expression in Europe, pointing out it is always better to counteract the disinformation of propagandist or allegedly propagandist media by exposing their factual errors or bad journalism, by demonstrating their lack of financial or operational independence, by highlighting their loyalty to government interests and their disregard for the public interest.

After 2 days, Google banned this page from appearing altogether in search requests, only to reverse that to only de-rank this page in Google results somewhere around March 2022.

Structural deep event?

Full article: Structural deep event

Jacob Dreizin, a former US/Army soldier who publishes military analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on his website, voiced concern that some Javelins that are sent to Ukraine will enter the black market and may be used to shoot down civilian airliners at some point in the future. A view that, before long, is starting to be shared by Interpol and Europol.

The new head of the British Army's (Patrick Sanders) told his troops they must prepare to fight the Russian army in a potential World War Three. / UK general Richard Shirreff (former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe) is voicing these concerns since at least 2016.

 

Sub-Pages

Page Name	Size	Description
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Incorporation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia into Russia	33,951	Late September 2022, Russia held 4 referendums annexing some regions from Ukraine.
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Legacy	24,900	A list of long term political effects that have a significant chance of becoming permanent in the countries of participants or sponsors.
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Premature death	10,232	Premature deaths of mostly Russian businessman during and around when the Russian invasion commenced. There may be Ukrainian and others as well. As the list grows, it appears the men are being targeted in dozens of western countries as well.
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Preparation	14,583	A list of ways both sides prepared for the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Wagner coup attempt	6,052	An attempted coup, by some seen as false flag by Putin to lure out generals and double agents within the Russian State, by others as the sign the Russian state will collapse in the 2020s.
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/War Crimes	8,312	A list of War crimes and propaganda in this event.

 

Related Quotations

Page	Quote	Author	Date
2014 Ukraine coup	“I suspect this entire Ukraine Crisis had been war-gamed and war planned quite some time ago at the highest levels of US/NATO. Notice DOD slipped 2 US warships into the Black Sea just before the Olympics under a patently absurd pretext. In other words, what we are seeing unfold here is a US/NATO War Plan. They instigated the fascist coup against Yanukovich. They anticipated that Putin would then respond by taking over Crimea. I suspect the US/NATO/EU response will be to introduce military forces into Western Ukraine and Kiev and thus make Ukraine a de facto member of NATO, which has been their objective all along. They have already anticipated what Putin’s next move after that will be. Notice also the massive anti-Russian campaign by the Western News Media working in lock-step with each other. Another sign that all this has been planned well in advance. I suspect that US/NATO/EU figure that Putin knows they have this offensive, first-strike strategic nuclear capability with a rudimentary ABM/BMD capability so that at the end of the day he will be forced to stand down—or else. Compellence as opposed to Deterrence. Just like during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That is where this US/NATO/EU War Plan is heading on the assumptions that they can keep their deliberate Escalation Dominance under their control and that at the end of the day Putin will be forced to stand down just like Khrushchev did and for the same reasons. That would leave US/NATO/EU in control of at least half of Ukraine as a de facto NATO member state.”	Francis Boyle	February 2014
Azov Battalion	“In 2014, when the volunteer squads were defending the country, many of their appeals were quite radical against the Russian Federation. They were volunteers and it was their personal point of view. The Azov battalion are not volunteers, but are part of the National Guard. They are the official army of our state. Those who wanted to engage in politics - they were engaged in politics. Those who decided to be in the AFU, they became part of the AFU,”	Volodymyr Zelensky	May 2022
Josep Borrell	“This war will be won on the battlefield. Additional €500 million from the #EPF are underway. Weapon deliveries will be tailored to Ukrainian needs.”	Josep Borrell	9 April 2022
Dave Cullen	“[...] whether it is Covid lockdowns, or raising the price of electricity and fuel, or restrictions on energy usage, such as mandatory rationing, or even powercuts - the result is always the same. Winding down the economy, destroying small to medium businesses, forcing more people to stay at home, reducing human movement and making people dependent on the government for their most basic needs. [...] The plan appears to be, do drag on the Ukraine war for as long as possible, so as to create an excuse to accelerate the transition to completely insufficient power sources such as wind, wave and solar energy, during this process energy rationing will become the norm, [...]”	Dave Cullen	13 September 2022
Jacob Dreizin	“Uncle Sam is on track to offload just about all his surplus gear onto the Ukraine. He’s just getting warmed up. They are talking about self-propelled cannon and hundreds of M113 armored vehicles, not to mention 40,000 rounds for the cannon, counterbattery radar stations, helicopters, you name it. [...] Sending more, larger, and heavier equipment to the Ukraine, won’t do anything, other than seal the total destruction of the Ukraine, and its transformation into a starving European Somalia with nuclear power plants. As I’ve written before, Russia will escalate by destroying the bridges over the Dniepr, preventing the equipment from reaching its destination, while also permanently destroying what’s left of the Ukraine’s economy, making the eastern half totally dependent on Russia for its subsistence.”	Jacob Dreizin	17 April 2022
Ben Hodges	“The Russians have zero, zero positive outcomes if they use a nuclear weapon. There's no benefit for them if they use it...The Army, the Air Force, all of our services are constantly training, preparing, maintaining a level of readiness to send the signal to the Kremlin that we are ready, that we are prepared....The apocalyptic sort of ending is not going to happen because even the Russians know that there's no positive outcome for them if they do that...The only benefit they get is from threatening to use it because they see that we are so concerned that they might do it; that we stop from doing things that Ukraine needs such as providing long-range weapons...After the British and the French provided long-range precision weapons to Ukraine, Russia did nothing. There was nothing they could do. And that's why I think it's just very unlikely.”	Ben Hodges	21 August 2023
Mélanie Joly	“We’re able to see how much we’re isolating the Russian regime right now — because we need to do so economically, politically and diplomatically — and what are the impacts also on society, and how much we’re seeing potential regime change in Russia..The goal is definitely to do that, is to weaken Russia’s ability to launch very difficult attacks against Ukraine. We want also to make sure that Putin and his enablers are held to account.”	Mélanie Joly	10 March 2023
Roderich Kiesewetter	“If Europe wants to complete the energy transition, it needs its own lithium deposits. The largest lithium deposits in Europe are located in the Donetsk-Lugansk region. (...) So we also have completely different goals in the background here. And that is why we need a united effort of citizens so that our policy has the backing to do more for Ukraine....In doing so, it (Ukraine) is waging a proxy war.”	Roderich Kiesewetter	December 2023
Patrick Lancaster	“I mean the people that were born there before 1956 were born in Russia so it just makes sense to them to go back and then once I was there for the referendum and then once that kind of fizzled off and started calming down once you know Russia was in, and you know you know it was a done deal for pretty much, then Donetsk started to develop so I ended up going to Donetsk here and staying showing the referendum here as well again. It was a lot different than the west was making it out to see, you know, seeing the fact that there's no Ukrainian language that's spoken here. There's you know the vast majority of the population is ethnically Russian and they all you know would like to consider this, you know this area part of Russia I mean they definitely do now at that point.”	Patrick Lancaster Cyrus Janssen	2022
Patrick Lancaster	“I mean I'm just I've been working here on this side of the contact line and the anti-Ukraine government territory so I've only been able to show what happened here, but what I've seen here with my own eyes is indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas year after year by Ukrainian forces. Indiscriminate and targeted in fact, just last month (..) two civilian electric plants targeted by Ukrainian forces. (...) Now that the war is really hot attacks are coming in every hour, and I mean the only thing that's being shown in the west is the results of Russian attacks on Ukraine, but what the west isn't showing is every day here in Donetsk there is attacks from Ukraine controlled territory Ukraine attacking the civilian population here. In the last 12 days there has been 19 civilians killed. I mean it's not a huge amount like across Ukraine right now but in the last 12 days in the Donetsk people's republic controlled territory there's been 19 civilians killed and I believe 27 injured and these are results of Ukrainian attacks on mostly civilian areas of course battle's been raging on the front line since this new development happened and even before, but so you know a lot of the shells are hitting civilian areas and I assume a lot are hitting military areas as well... Those aren't as free to report on as the other ones.”	Patrick Lancaster Cyrus Janssen	2022
Anatol Lieven	“since 2015 Ukrainian governments and parliaments have refused to take the essential first steps to its implementation....Over the past seven years, U.S. and E.U. sanctions against Russia have also not worked in the slightest to make Russia accept Ukrainian terms for settling the Donbas and Crimean disputes...There is, however, no chance whatsoever that such [Minsk II] solution can rest on the demand of the present Ukrainian government — in effect, to regain the Donbas unconditionally....However, to bring about a peace settlement, it is also necessary to address the factors that brought about the failure of the Minsk II agreement. Chief among these is the Ukrainians' refusal to guarantee permanent full autonomy for the Donbas region....[T]he United States endorsed the Minsk II agreement and has never officially disowned it, since 2015 it has in practice done nothing to help create an actual settlement based on its provisions. Above all, there has been no attempt whatsoever by any of the three U.S. administrations since 2015 to use America’s vast leverage with Ukraine to persuade governments in Kiev to change their approach to the Donbas in the ways necessary to make a settlement possible.”	Anatol Lieven Quincy Institute For Responsible Statecraft	January 2022
Richard Moore	“With the tragedy and destruction unfolding so distressingly in Ukraine, we should remember the values and hard won freedoms that distinguish us from Putin, none more than LGBT+ rights. So let’s resume our series of tweets to mark #LGBTHM2022”	Richard Moore	25 February 2022
Elon Musk	“If Putin could so easily humiliate the West, then he would accept the challenge [to fight me]. But he will not.”	X Elon Musk	2022
NATO	“We had a moment in history, between 1988 and 1991, where we could have worked with Mikhail Gorbachev to make his vision of perestroika succeed. Instead, we allowed him to fail, without any real plan on how we would live with what emerged from the ruins of the Soviet Union. Save for a short period of time during the Second World War where we needed the Soviet Union to defeat Germany and Japan, we have been in a continual state of political conflict with the Soviet Union. Even after the Soviet Union collapsed, we viewed the Russian Federation more as a defeated enemy that we needed to keep down, than a friend in need of a helping hand up.”	Scott Ritter	2021
Vladimir Putin	“Whoever would try to stop us and further create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any outcome.”	Vladimir Putin ThePrint	21 February 2022
Russia/Encirclement	“Unfortunately, it’s US “diplomacy” which brought the US, Russia, Ukraine, and NATO to the current standoff. As the Warsaw Pact disintegrated and the Soviet Union collapsed, US encouragement for those events included pledges that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization wouldn’t take advantage of the situation to expand eastward. Since then, NATO has inexorably pushed in that direction, nearly doubling the number of member states. Thanks, US “diplomacy.” Things began coming to a head with the US-sponsored coup in Ukraine that replaced its “Russia-friendly” regime with a “US/Europe-friendly” regime in 2014, courtesy of Barack Obama. Thanks, US “diplomacy.” Then in 2019, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which forbade the US to place missiles within surprise strike distance of Russia, and Russia to place similar missiles within surprise strike distance of NATO. The US followed up by placing exactly such missiles in Poland, courtesy of Donald Trump. Some “diplomacy.”... Then the US went into overdrive (courtesy of Trump and Biden) against the opening of a pipeline (Nord Stream 2) which would have supplied Russian natural gas to Germany. The pipeline would have been a force for peace insofar as Russia likes to sell natural gas (at a fraction of prices the US can offer), and Germans like to not freeze to death.”	Thomas Knapp	2021
Russia/Encirclement	“We have made it clear that Nato’s move to the east is unacceptable (...) The United States is standing with missiles on our doorstep. Is it an excessive requirement not to install shock systems at our house? How would the Americans react if missiles were placed at the border with Canada or Mexico”	The Guardian Vladimir Putin	2021
Kori Schake	“And in addition, even in shrewdly strategic terms, for 5 percent of U.S. Defense spending last year and zero American military casualties, the Ukrainians are destroying the Russian army and that is absolutely in America's interests.”	Kori Schake	21 May 2023
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer	“It is not likely. But he is unpredictable and consumed by resentment and rancour. So, you should not exclude the possibility that he'll be creating a problem between Kaliningrad and Belarus. That area is the gateway from Western Europe to the Baltic countries. If he closes that passage, it would be a reason for war for NATO.”	Jaap de Hoop Scheffer NOS	24 February 2022
Frank-Walter Steinmeier	“There are tougher days ahead for us in Germany, too," [The sanctions imposed, he said, would inevitably bring them.] "We will have to be prepared to bear them if our solidarity is not just to be lip service, if it is to be taken seriously.”	Frank-Walter Steinmeier	27 March 2022
Jens Stoltenberg	“Two World Wars and the Cold War has taught us that there is no real security in Europe without a strong transatlantic bond. Standing together in NATO, Europe and America will continue to keep the peace and protect our democratic way of life. As we have done for more than 70 years. NATO is a defensive Alliance. We are not threatening Russia or anyone else. But we will take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies. This is why in response to Russia’s pattern of aggressive actions, we have been strengthening our deterrence and defence across the Alliance. To avoid any miscalculation or misunderstanding about our ironclad commitment to defend each other. So if Kremlin’s aim is to have less NATO on Russia’s borders, it will only get more NATO.”	Jens Stoltenberg	19 February 2022
Donald Trump	“I mean, he’s taking over a country for $2 worth of sanctions. I’d say that’s pretty smart.”	Donald Trump	2022
Volodymyr Zelensky	“I know Zelensky a little. I know his team. He’s addicted to glory and hates criticism, first and foremost. This isn’t necessarily bad for an actor, but absolutely unacceptable for a politician, let alone a president. Presently, Zelensky isn’t making any decisions. The U.S. State Department is making them for him, with Jake Sullivan as his supervisor. In Ukraine, power is executed by the head of the President’s Office Andrei Yermak. And my sources say he’s ready to dump Zelensky. Ukraine has always been fertile soil for corruption, and today, it’s in full bloom. A few weeks before the war, ex- Zelensky advisor Sergei Shefir was moving enormous sums of cash out of the country and transferring funds to offshore accounts. Ex-Minister of Defense Reznikov transferred $1 billion to offshore accounts. But that is just a drop in the ocean. Recently, I released a video on “X” about some embezzlement cases known to the media. The total amount in these cases reaches $60 billion. That’s why people aren’t eager to go to the frontlines. They don’t want to die only to make Zelensky and his team even richer. Does the White House know this? Certainly. They’re covering up for each other. For years, the West has been hooking Ukrainian elites. Corrupted officials are easier to control; it’s leverage. When the United States decides to dump Zelensky, you’ll see it immediately by the number of reports about his corruption in the global media.”	Volodymyr Zelensky Diana Panchenko	12 October 2024

 

Known Participants

All 3 of the participants already have pages here:

Participant	Description
Belarus	"Europe's last dictatorship" - Formerly part of the USSR. Outspoken opposition to the COVID-19 lockdown agenda.
Russia	The largest nation state in the world
Ukraine	The largest country entirely within Europe, a former part of the USSR

 

Related Documents

Title	Type	Publication date	Author(s)	Description
Document:Being anti-war does not make us apologists for 'the enemy' or anyone else	Article	28 February 2022	Lindsey German	I am proud to be an anti-war campaigner and I know there are many like me. I note that anti-war protesters in Russia are being lauded in the British media. I also support them and send them my full solidarity. The irony is that Putin will see them as the enemy within — just as our government (and loyal opposition) treats us.
Document:Biden Works to Prolong Ukraine War	blog post	7 June 2022	Craig Murray	"Ukraine is objecting to this plan (for Turkey to clear sea lanes of mines and to police the ships carrying grain) because it objects to the removal of the mines, which I should be clear were put down in the sea lanes by Ukraine to prevent amphibious attack on Odessa."
Document:BlackRock Plots to Buy Ukraine	Article	30 December 2022	Bradley Devlin	As a result of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, BlackRock the most influential financial institution in the world, plans to cash in on the destruction of that country.
Document:Capitalism normalizes death: From COVID-19 to the threat of nuclear war	Article		Andre Damon	The total devaluation of human life, the indifference to mass death in the pandemic and the recklessness with which American capitalism is rushing into conflict with Russia, reflect the views and social character of the American ruling class. This parasitic oligarchy feasts upon the impoverishment and exploitation of the working population.
Document:Death Wish 2023	blog post		Craig Murray	"The practical problem with James Sherr’s call for total war is that Ukraine really does not have the population numbers to sustain to victory a total war against Russia. It is just going to run out of people, as indeed the much trumpeted counteroffensive appears to have done."
Document:Ellwood vs Ellwood	Article	9 March 2023	John Ellwood	The media profile of former minister Lieutenant Colonel The Right Honourable Tobias Ellwood has increased as a result of COVID-19. A recent interview of his on Sky News regarding the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised a few eyebrows.
Document:F-16 for Ukraine - An open letter to Joseph Biden	open letter	8 May 2023	Anders Åslund Karel Schwarzenberg Eerik-Niiles Kross Jarno Limnéll Andreas Umland Vytautas Landsbergis Nathalie Tocci Alberto Alemanno Roderich Kiesewetter Anton Hofreiter	Open letter to US President Joe Biden from European deep state minions, pleading for an escalation in Ukraine, and NATO membership. Lo and behold, a week after the letter, Biden approved F-16s, indicating that the letter was astroturf to make a decision already decided seem like done by European demand... Includes barely hidden threatening of those that blocked NATO accession in 2008, who bear "a grave responsibility" and "will be careful not to hinder it again."
Document:Faced with Donbass defeat, US and UK up the ante in Ukraine	Article	8 June 2022	Chris Nineham	Ivan Katchanovski, a Ukrainian professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa, argues: “The US and UK governments show no efforts or desire to achieve peaceful settlement of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
Document:How Spin and Lies Fuel a Bloody War of Attrition in Ukraine	Article	13 February 2023	Medea Benjamin Nicolas J. S. Davies	President Eisenhower famously said that only an "alert and knowledgeable citizenry" can "guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. An "alert and knowledgeable citizenry" would surely then demand that our government stop fueling this war and instead support immediate peace negotiations.
Document:Labour left breaks with Jeremy Corbyn over sending weapons to Ukraine	Article	26 February 2023	Toby Helm	The far left wing of the Labour Party has split from Jeremy Corbyn on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
Document:NATO goes to war against Russia	Statement	1 March 2022	World Socialist Web Site	There must be a new mass anti-war movement, based on the international working class. This opposition, however, must be developed as a conscious political movement for socialism. This means the building of the International Committee of the Fourth International and its affiliated Socialist Equality Parties in every country.
Document:Nato Expansion and Turkey	blog post	17 May 2022	Craig Murray	There is another, specifically Turkish interest in play here, which is very much a factor in Erdogan’s willingness to stand up to Biden over Swedish and Finnish NATO entry. This of course relates to the permanent tension between NATO members Turkey and Greece.
Document:Russia is deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus. NATO shouldn’t take the bait	Article	24 April 2023	Nikolai Sokov	Moscow regards the United States and Europe as parties to the war; Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that Russia and the United States are in a “hot phase” of war. These statements elevate the Russian war against Ukraine to the category of a “regional conflict” according to the 2000 and subsequent Russian Military Doctrines – a category that allows for limited use of nuclear weapons.
Document:Russophobia - Reaping the Whirlwind	Article	22 September 2022	Scott Ritter	Vladimir Putin’s order to begin partial mobilisation of Russian military forces continues a confrontation between Russia and a US-led coalition of Western nations that began at the end of the Cold War.
Document:Striving to Make Sense of the Ukraine War	blog post	4 April 2022	Craig Murray	These things can be true at the same time: a) The Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal: Putin is a war criminal; b) The US led invasion of Iraq was illegal: Blair and Bush are war criminals.
Document:The Assange Case Invalidates US Criticisms Of Russia: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix	Article	14 April 2022	Caitlin Johnstone	Just the fact that the US and UK are imprisoning a journalist for exposing the war crimes of a war criminal president — just that one fact by itself — completely invalidates all criticisms of Russia from Washington and its allies.
Document:The Great Game in Europe	article	8 April 2014	Aijaz Ahmad	In its eagerness to complete the encirclement of Russia by turning Ukraine into a forward country for positioning NATO bases, the U.S. is paving the way for fraternal genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Document:The Time to Negotiate Peace in Ukraine Is NOW	Article	24 October 2022	Richard E. Rubenstein	Are things in Ukraine getting worse? Yes, for both sides. This is precisely the right time to give peace a chance.
Document:The dirty secret Europe is hiding at the COP27 climate summit	Article	16 November 2022	Jonathan Cook	Grand declarations at COP27 on tackling the climate emergency are sabotaged by the Energy Charter Treaty from the 1990s that sees European nations held to ransom by the energy companies
Document:Truth and Ukraine	blog post	2 March 2023	Craig Murray	Commentator: "Russia didn't fail to take Kiev in March. It withdrew from Kiev because Zelensky agreed to peace talks. The US, UK and EU opposed the peace talks and Zelensky withdrew from the talks."
Document:Ukraine is the latest neocon disaster	Article	27 June 2022	Jeffrey Sachs	The same neocons who turned the Middle East into a disaster area are now creating a similar catastrophe in Ukraine – for Ukrainians and for the rest of the world, argues Prof Jeffrey Sachs<a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a>
Document:Vladimir Putin announces Special Military Operation in Ukraine	Speech	24 February 2022	Vladimir Putin	"They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today. In these circumstances, we have to take bold and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help."
Document:War Crimes	Article	9 October 2022	Jacob Dreizin	An article that was written on the occurrence of the disposal of civilians posted in video by Maksim Zhorin.
Document:What Might A Ukraine Peace Agreement Look Like?	blog post	13 May 2022	Craig Murray	Currently nobody in power wants peace. It is often impossible to resolve a geographic conflict without some element that can be portrayed as endorsement of ethnic cleansing. These are the problems of peace.
Document:Why Much of the Global South Isn’t Automatically Supporting the West in Ukraine	Article	28 February 2023	Krishen Mehta	"The BRICS are not imposing sanctions on Russia nor supplying arms to the opposing side. While Russia is the biggest supplier of energy and foodgrains for the Global South, China remains the biggest supplier of financing and infrastructure projects to them through the Belt and Road Initiative. And now Russia and China are closer than ever before because of the war."
Document:World War Again Knocks at Europe’s Door	Article	22 June 2024	Dennis Small	All indications are that NATO is in fact actively preparing its forces for near-term war on European soil – again.

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