Intel Slava - assessment of the Donbass situation end 2021
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Assessment of the Donbass situation end 2021
The Russian leadership is extremely concerned about the possibility of the start of large-scale hostilities in the Donbass and Crimea. There has not been such a level of military threat in the entire modern history of the Russian Federation.
The main threat is posed by the uncontrollable nature of actions, when the situation can explode at any moment. NATO rejected Russia's proposal to agree on zones of influence in order to somehow stabilise the situation. Blinken, at a meeting with Lavrov, did not accept the possibility of a diplomatic dialogue, giving Ukraine carte blanche to withdraw from the Minsk agreements.
The situation is more than ever close to a military conflict, or, more simply, to a war. The United States has removed all diplomatic and political restrictions.
Everything is heading towards a scenario of complete international isolation of Russia, a large-scale technological and trade blockade and an embargo on the purchase of oil and gas. It is for the beginning of this plan that the military scenario in Ukraine will be implemented.
The Kremlin clearly understands that now passivity will only exacerbate the situation. Responsibility for the conflict will still be assigned to Russia, no one will be interested in the real picture.
Therefore, in the event of an attack, a strategic operation will be implemented to liberate the South-Eastern regions - the territory of the country's industrial development and key trade routes in the Black Sea in order to create an alternative political entity to Kiev.
A characteristic feature of the situation is the complete loss of control over the situation by the President of Ukraine. He will either accept military aggression against Russia, or it will be implemented without him.
The development of the situation is determined by the following factors:
1. Will the "party of war" in the US put the squeeze on Biden on the option of open confrontation? To get him out of the way, Biden may well be deprived of power - his state of health provides many options for his "quiet" departure.
2. Will the Europeans accept such a scenario? There is also resistance here, but Europe does not have political subjectivity.
3. Unleashing a conflict will mean a turn of Russia to the East and a close military-political alliance with China. With the onset of the conflict, operations in vulnerable points, synchronised with the European theatre, will be launched - Taiwan, South Korea, the countries of Polynesia, Micronesia and Melanesia.
4. It will also defrost the smoldering conflicts in the Third World countries - primarily in the Middle East. Donor countries of oil and gas will find themselves between a rock and a hard place. It will deal a blow (first a precautionary, and, if necessary, final) on the production infrastructure, in order to deprive the United States and Europe of the reserves of the Middle East.
5. Most likely, such a development of events will launch US aggression against Venezuela and Iran, in order to control one of the largest oil and gas fields.
Whether the United States has enough resources and capabilities to adequately act on all these fronts is an open question.
For Russia, what is happening is the bitter result of the false compromise of 2015, the recognition of the legitimacy of the presidential elections and the adoption of the figure of Poroshenko. Who after that immediately "threw" Moscow, unleashing a large-scale conflict in the Donbass, which ended in the military defeat of Kiev. And even then, we did not realise the result of military victories.
Moreover, all the rest of the years Moscow, after the fact, tacitly agreed with the increasingly worsening situation - the militarisation of Ukraine, the deployment of foreign military contingents, the unleashing of a large-scale sabotage war not only in Donbass, but also in Russia.
This is the result, when on the scales "power" and "money" wins the latter. Business only thinks about profit, even when it leads to disaster.
All these years Kiev lost understanding of the boundaries of the possible, while centrifugal forces within the country were developing.
Now Ukraine is torn apart by a political crisis, the president does not control either his security forces or the army, being in de facto isolation.
And we, Russia, in the course of choosing the wrong strategy, following the interests of capital and the creeping deterioration of the situation, have lost all the tools to somehow control it.
The war can start at any moment, and there is nothing we can do about it.
Before making far-reaching conclusions, I would wait for the talks between Putin and Biden. They will take place soon and Ukraine will be the central theme. If the rhetoric of the parties does not change, then it really is worth preparing for the worst scenarios.
The Kremlin realised that there was nowhere to retreat. It is a pity that the realisation of such simple things came only after 7 years of conflict. Now Ukrainians are killing not just separatists, but Russian citizens. They will not be able to kill a couple of thousand Russians with impunity.
This time, Russian troops will be used openly. It is important to understand that we will confront an army controlled directly from NATO headquarters. There can be no compromises here. Only the complete defeat of the advancing enemy will for a long time discourage the desire to probe our defences from the western direction.
