2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Legacy

Note: This page is about the long term political effects that have a significant chance of becoming permanent or setting a long term trend. For deep events see the other sub-pages on the Special Military Operation's main page.

 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/Legacy (Low-level deep event)

Type	legal
Description	A list of long term political effects that have a significant chance of becoming permanent in the countries of participants or sponsors.

The "Special Military Operation" has caused significant changes internally to Russia's own political structure with massive suspicious "suicides", economical trickery, a silent increase in more continental mass surveillance and even the removal of Wikispooks's own page on the "SMO" in the beginning of the war. Also on this page are effects in geopolitical relations that this war caused.

Abductions or Evacuations?

See also: Kidnapping

Moscow has been accused of abducting and forcibly deporting more than 19,000 Ukrainian children. In what could amount to the most horrific war crimes committed to date, the Russian state is allegedly attempting to turn a generation of Ukrainian children into Russians, and not like other alleged war crimes, Russia admits they took the children, but for their own good, and have been doing it since 2014, which is not a crime according to the Geneva and Hague Conventions. Russia appears to intent to absorb the Ukrainian children and transform the children from there into Russians permanently. - Vice News

According to Ukrainian witnesses, Russian forces have forcefully deported 6,000 Mariupol residents in order to use them as "hostages" and put more pressure on Ukraine. According to the Russian ministry of Defense the residents of Mariupol had a "voluntary choice" whether to evacuate to the Ukrainian- or Russian-controlled territory and that by 20 March about 60,000 Mariupol residents were "evacuated to Russia". Human Rights Watch has not been able to verify these accounts. Although people were denied at first to be abducted at all, 62 victims (44 men and 18 women) of enforced disappearance have been released in 2022 by Russian and Russian-affiliated armed groups..

PMCs

The Wagner Group (as all other Russian PMCs) was ordered to be integrated into the Russian military in early 2023. Wagner was the only group making significant gains in 2023. The group - after an alleged strike on their base - invaded Rostov and attempted to drive to and eventually invade Moscow on the 23rd on June, only for leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to announce to suddenly halt was Putin called a "coup attempt". At the end of this 24 hours - Wagner's leadership left - allowedly - for Belarus. The 20 other PMCs were interestingly not under the scope of the mainstream media on this day.

Several pundits, including CIA and DIA former officer Rebekah Koffler said "Putin 'orchestrated' the Wagner coup with Prigozhin as a 'classic false flag' to boost recruitment for the army and make West think he is weakened". University of Melbourne professor William Parlett argued Putin tried to lure generals and elite investors to join the "coup" to execute double agents and deep political operatives in Russia by filtering them out, perhaps to stall the war until NATO or the US stops their aid.

De-Dollarization?

Full article: De-Dollarization

Russia would find other customers for its oil and gas if sanctions of NATO countries in this area take a hold, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. This could lead to increased bypassing of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, probably involving an increase of (already existing) credit swaps between Russia and other nations such as China and BRICS. The world's reserve currency is the backbone of our global financial system which would be severely shaken if global demand for the US dollar decreases, US deficit spending limited and the practice of bilateral credit swaps be accepted more widely.

New Iron Curtain?

By May 2022 rumors started to circulate that Poland may want to annex parts of Ukraine.

Belt and Road Initiative

Full article: Belt and Road Initiative

The vicious circle that the western politicians represented by the European Council didn't want to cut off Russia from the worldwide banking systems partly because Russians owed their countries too much money, is a similar scenario that scholars have painted as a possible choke-hold in case China invaded Taiwan or Hong Kong with their lending to many Asian states.

Media censorship

Full article: Media censorship

Russia Today's websites in many areas around the world, since early/mid March, are giving a 403 error after (supposedly successful) DDOS check. This is notable in light of the alleged Bucha massacre by Russian troops at the end of March 2022.

The consolidation of the media has been further strengthened by the mass panic in reaction to the invasion causing more alternative media funded by countries such as Russia to be banned from accessing without a VPN. Euronews reported that the European Federation of Journalists (or EFJ) said it feared the effects of this spiral of censorship on freedom of expression in Europe, pointing out it is always better to counteract the disinformation of propagandist or allegedly propagandist media by exposing their factual errors or bad journalism, by demonstrating their lack of financial or operational independence, by highlighting their loyalty to government interests and their disregard for the public interest.

After 2 days, Google banned this page from appearing altogether in search requests, only to reverse that to only de-rank this page in Google results somewhere around March 2022.

EU Mass surveillance projects

Recessions caused by refusing to buy Russia's oil resulted in an increased presence of right wing anti immigration policies in the EU countries. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor released a report in the fall which described the European Union Commission Intrusive surveillance program for migrants and asylum seekers. In which FRONTEX, better known as EU's border patrol was illegally to collecting detailed information about migrants and asylum seekers, such as "genetic and biometric data and DNA fingerprints, their religious beliefs and their sexual orientation. Moreover, the Euro-Med indicated that the program would criminalize innocent people, impede their right to seek asylum, facilitate the procedures for expulsion and return them to their countries, and consolidate the misperception linking asylum and terrorism".

Depletion of Munitions stock

US and NATO stockpiles have depleted strongly, to the point that it would not be possible to fight a major war or even fend of an attacker for more than a few days.

“It’s public now, directors of the U.S. CIA and Russian SVR recently discussed how to resolve the Ukraine. The Ukraine war ends soon enough, because the U.S. and its hegemonic bloc STRAIGHT UP RUN OUT OF AMMO by the first months of next year, IN THE VERY “BEST” CASE (for them.) That is, they’ll be able to supply the Ukraine minimally after that, but, NOT REMOTELY enough to keep Russia at bay.”
Jacob Dreizin (July 17, 2023) 

Preparation of a major land war in Europe?

Poland has ordered 1000 Korean K2 tanks, the majority of these to be built in Poland from 2026 on. These tanks are upgraded from the standard version, notable are the multiple armor and missile defense packages.

Oil & "Debt Default"

Russia has been suffering from sanctions following the 2014 Ukraine Coup, the Covid-19 Recession that saw the 5th highest death toll of the world nations, and a sudden Oil price war with US-ally Saudi Arabia during the Covid-19 Lockdown. Russia suffered a debt default caused by a suspicious technical error in Belgian computers processing the finances, which fuelled claims that it was the reason BP divested from Rosneft, that Shell left and pipeline investments into Blue Stream were scrapped.

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