Document:Research Proposal November 2018 Edelman Intelligence

The Institute for Statecraft would like to explore further work with Edelman Intelligence to understand changing perceptions and identify solutions on the issue of false information and Russian malign influence.

 project proposal  by Integrity Initiative dated 26th June 2018

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Subjects: Edelmann Intelligence, opinion polling
Example of: Integrity Initiative/Leak/6
Source: Anonymous (for Statecraft Proposal (Nov 2018) Link)

tables slightly edited because of format change

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Research Proposal November 2018 Edelman Intelligence

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THE INSTITUE FOR STATECRAFT

INTEGRITY INITIATIVE EXTENSION RESEARCH PROPOSAL

NOVEMBER 2018

INTRODUCTION

In September 2018, Edelman Intelligence undertook initial work for the Institute for Statecraft that looked at:

1. Perceptions of false information and fake news

2. Positive and negative perceptions of Russia overall across countries

3. The impact of and how to best tackle the issue of false information coming from Russia

Following on from this, the Institute for Statecraft would like to explore further work to understand changing perceptions and identify solutions on the issue of false information and Russian malign influence. Specifically, the Institute for Statecraft is looking to do that by expanding the scope of the original work. This will be done in the following ways:

• By keeping the initial questions to measure changes in perception, and including additional questions to inform the development of actionable solutions on the issue of false information

• By conducting the work in additional countries to have a more encompassing view of the issue

• By increasing the sample size in each market to be able to deep-dive more into country specific demographics

CONSIDERATIONS

Some of the markets suggested for the poll are hard-to-reach, therefore some considerations apply to the research:

• We will use an online methodology to poll individuals in the majority of countries, meaning the sample will be representative of the online population;

• We will be able to reach a maximum sample size of 1,000 respondents in some countries (see below), others will have smaller online feasibility.

• There are six countries where online research is not feasible (Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Afghanistan and Yemen). For these, we have provided costs for either telephone or face-to-face methodology. This does have an impact on costs and timings.

• Unfortunately, there are six countries we are unable to conduct research in, either online or face-to-face due to the fact that panels do not exist in these countries as well as based on current instability. These are Azerbaijan, Iran, Libya, Malta, Palestine and Syria.

APPROACH AND OUTCOMES

We will use the existing questionnaire to make sure new data is comparable across the countries where research has already been conducted. Edelman Intelligence will also work with the Institute for Statecraft to shape 4-5 additional questions which will enable development of action-oriented solutions on the issue of false information.

Some of the questions we would consider exploring in the updated questionnaire:

- The best ways to ensure elections are free, fair and transparent

- The potential tools/ influencers/ policies to combat fake news

- Ask specifically which countries people think have interfered with their elections and add a time stamp to it (for example, in the last 5 years), to capture current context

Once the questions are agreed and signed off, we will work with our fieldwork providers to translate the questions, program them into an online survey or a face-to-face questionnaire and put them into field in the different countries.

We have proposed different options to conduct the research, each taking into account different needs/parameters such as reach, budget and timings.

Gold option Silver option Bronze option

Approach

Repeat of the first wave of the survey with our maximum feasibility in terms of countries leveraging both an online, telephone and face-to-face methodology as well as increasing the sample size to maximum feasibility in each country. Repeat of the first wave of the survey with additional countries using an online methodology (+telephone in Montenegro) and increasing the sample size to maximum feasibility in each country.

Repeat of the first wave of the survey with additional countries using an online methodology (+telephone in Montenegro).

Countries included

48 countries

Online: Algeria, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Jordan, KSA, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Macedonia, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, USA, , Qatar, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE. Telephone: Montenegro

F2F: Afghanistan, Armenia,

43 countries

Online: Algeria, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Jordan, KSA, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Macedonia, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, USA, , Qatar, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE. Telephone: Montenegro

(new countries in blue compared to wave 1 of the 43 countries

Online: Algeria, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Jordan, KSA, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Macedonia, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, USA, , Qatar, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE.

Telephone: Montenegro

(new countries in blue compared to wave 1 of the research) Georgia, Moldova, Yemen

(new countries in blue compared to wave 1 of the research) research)

Sample size Online/telephone: N=1,000 in all countries except Oman where we will only be able to reach N=600 and Qatar and Kuwait where we will only be able to reach N=500 F2F: N=500 Online/telephone: N=1,000 in all countries except Oman where we will only be able to reach N=600 and Qatar and Kuwait where we will only be able to reach N=500 Online/telephone: N=500 per country Benefits of the approach This approach enables you to expand the scope of the research to the maximum number of countries feasible and deep-dive more into country specific audiences. This approach enables you to expand the scope of the research and deep-dive more into country specific audiences. This approach enables you to expand the scope of the research and conduct it within a shorter timeframe due to an online methodology being used in all markets.

Considerations

Longer timelines due to recruiting and fieldwork for F2F methodologies

The maximum number of markets is not included as we have left out those that require F2F methodologies

With n=500 respondents by country, we will not be able to analyse country specific data by different demographics

Deliverable

A detailed PowerPoint report with analysis done at a global and regional level as well as some comparison between countries. We will deep dive into key demographics across countries and regions.

Country reports are currently not included in the scope. They can be added in for an additional £2,100 per report. They will be 8-10 slide PowerPoint reports that look at the country specific data by different audiences including age, gender or region in more details as well as highlighting country specific solutions to the issue.

When fieldwork is completed, we will undertake in-depth data analysis and develop a PowerPoint presentation which outlines the key findings by question for each country. We will deep-dive on the data and be able to give you a read by demographic lens to understand key differences by age, gender, income, and countries (e.g. western European countries compared to Eastern European countries).

INDICATIVE TIMINGS

Gold option Silver option Bronze option

Design of additional polling questions alongside the Institute for Statecraft 1 week 1 week 1 week

Survey programming and translations 2 weeks 2 weeks 2 weeks

Fieldwork 6 weeks 3.5 weeks 2.5 weeks

Data analysis and reporting 3 weeks 2 weeks 2 weeks

TOTAL 12 weeks 8.5 weeks 7.5 weeks

BUDGET

As requested, the costs below for undertaking this work are by country. These costs assume we are using the same survey developed in October and adding 4-5 additional questions. Please remember these costs include all aspects of the research - development of polling questions, fieldwork, data analysis and reporting.

Gold option Silver option Bronze option

Total budget for 48 countries is £490,750 excluding VAT

Total budget for 43 countries is £286,650 excluding VAT

Total budget for 43 countries is £185,490 excluding VAT

COUNTRY Gold option Silver option Bronze option

1 Australia £ 3,310.00 £ 3,310.00 £ 2,030.00

2 Austria £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

3 Belgium £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

4 Bosnia £ 6,110.00 £ 6,110.00 £ 3,930.00

5 Bulgaria £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

6 Canada £ 3,060.00 £ 3,060.00 £ 1,900.00

7 Denmark £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

8 Estonia £ 5,810.00 £ 5,810.00 £ 3,780.00

9 France £ 4,060.00 £ 4,060.00 £ 2,900.00

10 Germany £ 4,060.00 £ 4,060.00 £ 2,900.00

11 Greece £ 5,810.00 £ 5,810.00 £ 3,780.00

12 Italy £ 4,060.00 £ 4,060.00 £ 2,900.00

13 Jordan £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

14 Latvia £ 6,810.00 £ 6,810.00 £ 4,280.00

15 Lithuania £ 6,810.00 £ 6,810.00 £ 4,280.00

16 Macedonia £ 9,310.00 £ 9,310.00 £ 5,530.00

17 Netherlands £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

18 Norway £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

19 Poland £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

20 Portugal £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

21 Romania £ 4,810.00 £ 4,810.00 £ 3,280.00

22 Serbia £ 5,810.00 £ 5,810.00 £ 3,780.00

23 Slovakia £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

24 Spain £ 4,060.00 £ 4,060.00 £ 2,900.00

25 Sweden £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

26 Switzerland £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

27 Ukraine £ 6,810.00 £ 6,810.00 £ 4,280.00

28 USA £ 3,060.00 £ 3,060.00 £ 1,900.00

29 Egypt £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

30 Lebanon £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

31 Morocco £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

32 Qatar £ 6,530.00 £ 6,530.00 £ 6,250.00

33 KSA £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

34 Tunisia £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

35 Turkey £ 5,310.00 £ 5,310.00 £ 3,530.00

36 UAE £ 9,810.00 £ 9,810.00 £ 5,780.00

37 Pakistan £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

38 Algeria £ 10,760.00 £ 10,760.00 £ 6,250.00

39 Iraq £ 11,510.00 £ 11,510.00 £ 6,630.00

40 Kuwait £ 6,530.00 £ 6,530.00 £ 6,250.00

41 Israel £ 6,000.00 £ 6,000.00 £ 3,870.00

42 Oman £ 8,000.00 £ 8,000.00 £ 6,770.00

43 Montenegro (CATI) £ 7,210.00 £ 7,210.00 £ 4,480.00

44 Georgia £ 27,100.00 £ - £ -

45 Armenia £ 27,200.00 £ - £ -

46 Moldova £ 27,200.00 £ - £ -

47 Yemen £ 65,300.00 £ - £ -

48 Afghanistan £ 57,300.00 £ - £ -

TOTAL FOR EACH OPTION £490,750 £286,650 £185,490

Please note all prices exclude VAT and any out of pocket expenses such as travel, accommodation and catering. All out of pocket expenses will be billed back at cost. This quote is valid for 30 days . Edelman Intelligence will invoice Institute for Statecraft in accordance with the following schedule:

o 50% upon commissioning of the work and Institute for Statecraft agreeing to scope of work

o 50% upon delivery of the final debrief report

All invoices shall be due and payable within 30 days of the invoice date.