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{{Document
 
{{Document
|title=The German Cluster − Interim Report
+
|title=Framing Russian meddling in the Catalan question
 
|type=report
 
|type=report
|authors=The Integrity Initiative
+
|authors=The Integrity Initiative/Spanish Cluster
 
|leaked=Yes
 
|leaked=Yes
 
|publication_date=October, 2017
 
|publication_date=October, 2017
 
|source_name='Anonymous'
 
|source_name='Anonymous'
|source_URL=
+
|source_URL=https://www.pdf-archive.com/2018/11/28/initintegrityframing-russian-meddling-in-cat/
|constitutes=Integrity Initiative/Leak/2
+
|constitutes=Integrity Initiative/Leak/2, Integrity Initiative/Projection
|keywords==Spain, Catalonia, cluster
+
|subjects=Spain, Catalonia, Catalonia/Independence, Julian Assange
|description=
+
|description=An example of [[Projection by the Integrity Initiative]]. The Moncloa operation shows that the group itself has been involved in subverting the Spanish political process. This document accuses Russia of involvment in the Catalonia independence question.
|note= {{ref|3}}
 
 
}}
 
}}
 
+
==What do we know so far?==
 
 
What do we know so far?
 
  
 
The Kremlin backs Madrid and considers the Catalan crisis an internal affair of Spain - at least
 
The Kremlin backs Madrid and considers the Catalan crisis an internal affair of Spain - at least
Line 22: Line 19:
 
of its own medicine” (i.e. “a colour revolution” or a “Kosovo-type of unilateral independence”).
 
of its own medicine” (i.e. “a colour revolution” or a “Kosovo-type of unilateral independence”).
 
Thus, Russian mainstream media and pro-Russian voices on Twitter are paying a remarkable
 
Thus, Russian mainstream media and pro-Russian voices on Twitter are paying a remarkable
amount of attention to the Catalan question. Well-known figures such as Julian Assange or
+
amount of attention to the Catalan question. Well-known figures such as [[Julian Assange]] or
Edward Snowden have made a sudden and notorious appearance in the Catalan debates
+
[[Edward Snowden]] have made a sudden and notorious appearance in the Catalan debates
 
raising suspicions of potential meddling by the Kremlin. The most prominent Spanish
 
raising suspicions of potential meddling by the Kremlin. The most prominent Spanish
 
newspaper, El País, has denounced the interference in the crisis by the “Russian propaganda
 
newspaper, El País, has denounced the interference in the crisis by the “Russian propaganda
machine”. These articles1 have triggered a public debate, mostly in Spain but not only, about
+
machine”. These articles<ref>See “How Russian news networks are using Catalonia to destabilize Europe”, September 25th 2017
 +
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/25/inenglish/1506323273_063367.html
 +
“Russian meddling machine sets sights on Catalonia”, September 28th 2017
 +
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/26/inenglish/1506413477_994601.html “Russian “hackers” help keep banned
 +
Catalan referendum census site online” September 28th 2017
 +
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/28/inenglish/1506588970_026442.html</ref>
 +
have triggered a public debate, mostly in Spain but not only, about
 
the level of the Kremlin’s involvement. While the answer to this question is not obvious, the
 
the level of the Kremlin’s involvement. While the answer to this question is not obvious, the
 
role played by Russian media outlets and bots seems hardly deniable at this point.
 
role played by Russian media outlets and bots seems hardly deniable at this point.
 
The following sections offer some insights, background information and suggestions to
 
The following sections offer some insights, background information and suggestions to
 
contextualize and interpret the (likely) Russian meddling in Spain.
 
contextualize and interpret the (likely) Russian meddling in Spain.
Two hypotheses to explain why Russia would interfere in Spain
 
  
Hypothesis 1: Russia has activated its propaganda apparatus to contribute to destabilizing
+
==Two hypotheses to explain why Russia would interfere in Spain==
 +
 
 +
'''Hypothesis 1: Russia has activated its propaganda apparatus to contribute to destabilizing
 
Spain as this fits its overall narrative about a dysfunctional, weakening and almost collapsing
 
Spain as this fits its overall narrative about a dysfunctional, weakening and almost collapsing
EU
+
EU'''
  
 
This has been the prevailing interpretation by external observers. It is the most likely one, but
 
This has been the prevailing interpretation by external observers. It is the most likely one, but
Line 41: Line 45:
 
figure out what Russia wants to achieve from it.
 
figure out what Russia wants to achieve from it.
  
Hypothesis 2: Catalan pro-independence activists bought Assange’s support.
+
'''Hypothesis 2: Catalan pro-independence activists bought Assange’s support.'''
 +
 
 
Taking into account unsuccessful attempts by Catalan separatists to attract international
 
Taking into account unsuccessful attempts by Catalan separatists to attract international
 
attention before the events of October 1st, this option cannot be completely ruled out. It
 
attention before the events of October 1st, this option cannot be completely ruled out. It
Line 50: Line 55:
 
These two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and actually a merging of both is also
 
These two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and actually a merging of both is also
 
possible. Only the order of who started and designed the first steps would change.
 
possible. Only the order of who started and designed the first steps would change.
1 See “How Russian news networks are using Catalonia to destabilize Europe”, September 25th 2017
+
 
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/25/inenglish/1506323273_063367.html
 
“Russian meddling machine sets sights on Catalonia”, September 28th 2017
 
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/26/inenglish/1506413477_994601.html “Russian “hackers” help keep banned
 
Catalan referendum census site online” September 28th 2017
 
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/28/inenglish/1506588970_026442.html
 
2
 
 
As mentioned above, the Catalan issue can fit well within the overall Russian narrative
 
As mentioned above, the Catalan issue can fit well within the overall Russian narrative
 
depicting an undemocratic and chaotic EU receiving “a taste of its own medicine”. This helps to
 
depicting an undemocratic and chaotic EU receiving “a taste of its own medicine”. This helps to
Line 63: Line 62:
 
Below the first and so far, the most controversial tweet published by Assange (setting the
 
Below the first and so far, the most controversial tweet published by Assange (setting the
 
sensationalist tone of his tweets and frame of the Catalan issue):
 
sensationalist tone of his tweets and frame of the Catalan issue):
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1.png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1.png]]
  
 
One day and a half later, the Catalan Vice-President (regional Government) thanked him.
 
One day and a half later, the Catalan Vice-President (regional Government) thanked him.
  
 +
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (2).png]]
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (2).png]]
 
 
Other examples:
 
Other examples:
  
File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (3).png
+
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (3).png]]
  
 
WikiLeaks has been publishing both in English and in Catalan and giving practical support to
 
WikiLeaks has been publishing both in English and in Catalan and giving practical support to
 
some Generalitat (Catalan regional government) initiatives
 
some Generalitat (Catalan regional government) initiatives
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (4).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (4).png]]
  
Line 81: Line 81:
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (6).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (6).png]]
 +
 
Assange has been actively involved and at times playing a highly-visible role
 
Assange has been actively involved and at times playing a highly-visible role
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (7).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (7).png]]
  
 +
Assange’s tweets proved to be well connected to local on-going events and nuances
  
Assange’s tweets proved to be well connected to local on-going events and nuances
 
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (8).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (8).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (91).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (91).png]]
  
According to El País, Russian bots increased by 2,000% the impact of the Catalan question on
+
According to ''[[El País]]'', Russian bots increased by 2,000% the impact of the Catalan question on
 
Twitter.
 
Twitter.
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (92).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (92).png]]
  
 
Further investigations seem to confirm this point:
 
Further investigations seem to confirm this point:
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (93).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (93).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (94).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (94).png]]
  
According to research conducted by J.J. Patrick, a former police officer who is now a freelance
+
According to research conducted by [[J.J. Patrick]], a former [[police officer]] who is now a freelance
 
journalist, Assange’s activity is part of a “focused disinformation campaign [devoted] to
 
journalist, Assange’s activity is part of a “focused disinformation campaign [devoted] to
 
international audiences”.
 
international audiences”.
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (95).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (95).png]]
 +
 
Source: https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
 
Source: https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
 +
 
In this article, it is worth watching the two videos comparing patterns of how news-spread
 
In this article, it is worth watching the two videos comparing patterns of how news-spread
 
across social networks when there is or not a “concentrated deployment of a Kremlin-tasked
 
across social networks when there is or not a “concentrated deployment of a Kremlin-tasked
Line 110: Line 114:
  
 
Mainstream Russian media also stepped enthusiastically into the issue.
 
Mainstream Russian media also stepped enthusiastically into the issue.
Sputnik’s headline reads as follows: “Pro-independence: a contagious time-bomb within a deaf
+
 
State”
+
[[Sputnik]]’s headline reads as follows: “Pro-independence: a contagious time-bomb within a deaf State”
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (96).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (96).png]]
 +
 
Civil war, violence, gunshots, misleading maps, hell…
 
Civil war, violence, gunshots, misleading maps, hell…
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (97).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (97).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (98).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (98).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (991).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (991).png]]
 +
 
“European countries that have expressed some sort of official support to Catalonia”
 
“European countries that have expressed some sort of official support to Catalonia”
  
 
The usual suspects jumped in as well:
 
The usual suspects jumped in as well:
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (992).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (992).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (993).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (993).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (994).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (994).png]]
  
 
+
The [[DFRLAB]] research published on September 28 concluded that Sputnik has been more
The DFRLAB research published on September 28 concluded that Sputnik has been more
+
blatantly biased while the coverage of [[RT]] has been more balanced and professional.<ref>See https://medium.com/dfrlab/electionwatch-russia-and-referendums-in-catalonia-192743efcd76
blatantly biased while the coverage of RT has been more balanced and professional.2 The
+
</ref> The DFRLAB considers that some attributions and Kremlin links taken for granted by ''El País'' articles are questionable.
DFRLAB considers that some attributions and Kremlin links taken for granted by El País articles
 
are questionable.
 
  
 
Regarding the RT coverage: the quality of its coverage throughout September can be
 
Regarding the RT coverage: the quality of its coverage throughout September can be
Line 143: Line 149:
 
repressed civilians” and contributing to over-dramatise the violent nature of the events
 
repressed civilians” and contributing to over-dramatise the violent nature of the events
 
(beyond the unwise use of police force in some limited instances during the events of October
 
(beyond the unwise use of police force in some limited instances during the events of October
1st).3
+
1st).<ref>Of course, it can hardly be said that RT was alone in this business. See for instance Peter Preston, “Violence in
 +
Catalonia needed closer scrutiny in age of fake news”, The Guardian, 8 October 2017
 +
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/08/catalonia-demo-injuries-fact-checking</ref>
  
 
RT keeps the flame up…
 
RT keeps the flame up…
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (995).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (995).png]]
  
 
“Tanks in the streets of Barcelona”: Spain and Catalonia on the verge of a violent outbreak
 
“Tanks in the streets of Barcelona”: Spain and Catalonia on the verge of a violent outbreak
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/253812-espana-cataluna-violencia-conflicto October 28th
+
<small>https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/253812-espana-cataluna-violencia-conflicto October 28th</small>
 +
 
 
“Has Spain the military capacity to intervene in Catalonia?” October 27th
 
“Has Spain the military capacity to intervene in Catalonia?” October 27th
https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/luis-gonzalo-segura/253776-espana-capacidad-militar-intervenir
+
<small>https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/luis-gonzalo-segura/253776-espana-capacidad-militar-intervenir</small>
2 See https://medium.com/dfrlab/electionwatch-russia-and-referendums-in-catalonia-192743efcd76
+
 
3 Of course, it can hardly be said that RT was alone in this business. See for instance Peter Preston, “Violence in
 
Catalonia needed closer scrutiny in age of fake news”, The Guardian, 8 October 2017
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/08/catalonia-demo-injuries-fact-checking
 
11
 
 
President Putin has also made a couple of remarkable public statements on Catalonia over the
 
President Putin has also made a couple of remarkable public statements on Catalonia over the
 
last weeks. Firstly, on October 4th during a ceremony with the new ambassadors recently
 
last weeks. Firstly, on October 4th during a ceremony with the new ambassadors recently
 
appointed to Russia, among them the Spanish one. Putin declared that Russia considers this
 
appointed to Russia, among them the Spanish one. Putin declared that Russia considers this
“an internal affair of the Kingdom of Spain”4 and hoped that “Spain will overcome the crisis”.
+
“'''an internal affair of the Kingdom of Spain'''”<ref>All emphasis added</ref> and hoped that “Spain will '''overcome the crisis'''”.
What it is remarkable is that Putin explicitly mentioned “the Catalan referendum” conferring
+
What it is remarkable is that Putin explicitly mentioned “'''the Catalan referendum'''” conferring
 
implicitly some legitimacy to it. Besides, while he was officially backing Madrid, he was also
 
implicitly some legitimacy to it. Besides, while he was officially backing Madrid, he was also
 
contributing to the Russian narrative that overstates the dramatism of the situation. Of course,
 
contributing to the Russian narrative that overstates the dramatism of the situation. Of course,
Line 169: Line 175:
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (996).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (996).png]]
 +
 
Note the emphasis here on referring to Catalonia as an Autonomous Community
 
Note the emphasis here on referring to Catalonia as an Autonomous Community
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (997).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (997).png]]
  
4 All emphasis added
 
12
 
 
Putin made his second public comment on Catalonia during a meeting of the Valdai Club held
 
Putin made his second public comment on Catalonia during a meeting of the Valdai Club held
 
on October 19th. His words were:
 
on October 19th. His words were:
The situation in Spain clearly shows how fragile stability can be even in a prosperous
+
 
 +
:The situation in Spain clearly shows how fragile stability can be even in a prosperous
 
and established state. Who could have expected, even just recently, that the discussion
 
and established state. Who could have expected, even just recently, that the discussion
of the status of Catalonia, which has a long history, would result in an acute political crisis?
+
of the status of '''Catalonia, which has a long history''', would result in an acute political crisis?
Russia's position here is known. Everything that is happening is an internal matter for Spain
+
 
 +
:Russia's position here is known. Everything that is happening is '''an internal matter''' for Spain
 
and must be settled based on Spanish law in accordance with democratic traditions. We are
 
and must be settled based on Spanish law in accordance with democratic traditions. We are
 
aware that the country’s leadership is taking steps towards this end.
 
aware that the country’s leadership is taking steps towards this end.
 
In the case of Catalonia, we saw the European Union and a number of other states unanimously
 
In the case of Catalonia, we saw the European Union and a number of other states unanimously
 
condemn the supporters of independence.
 
condemn the supporters of independence.
You know, in this regard, I cannot help but note that more thought should have gone into this
+
 
 +
:You know, in this regard, I cannot help but note that more thought should have gone into this
 
earlier. What, no one was aware of these centuries-old disagreements in Europe? They were,
 
earlier. What, no one was aware of these centuries-old disagreements in Europe? They were,
 
were they not? Of course, they were. However, at one point they actually welcomed
 
were they not? Of course, they were. However, at one point they actually welcomed
 
the disintegration of a number of states in Europe without hiding their joy.
 
the disintegration of a number of states in Europe without hiding their joy.
Why were they so unthinking, driven by fleeting political considerations and their desire
+
 
 +
:Why were they so unthinking, driven by fleeting political considerations and their desire
 
to please – I will put it bluntly – their big brother in Washington, in providing their unconditional
 
to please – I will put it bluntly – their big brother in Washington, in providing their unconditional
support to the secession of Kosovo, thus provoking similar processes in other regions of Europe
+
support to the secession of '''Kosovo''', thus provoking similar processes in other regions of Europe
 
and the world?
 
and the world?
You may remember that when Crimea also declared its independence, and then – following
+
 
the referendum – its decision to become part of Russia, this was not welcomed for some reason.
+
:You may remember that when '''Crimea also declared its independence''', and then – following
Now we have Catalonia. There is a similar issue in another region, Kurdistan. Perhaps this list is
+
the '''referendum''' – its decision to become part of Russia, this was not welcomed for some reason.
 +
Now we have '''Catalonia'''. There is a similar issue in another region, Kurdistan. Perhaps this list is
 
far from exhaustive. But we have to ask ourselves, what are we going to do? What should we
 
far from exhaustive. But we have to ask ourselves, what are we going to do? What should we
 
think about it?
 
think about it?
 +
 
The full speech can be found here http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
 
The full speech can be found here http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
 +
 
The message is crystal clear and consistent with Putin’s narratives and views: the West is to
 
The message is crystal clear and consistent with Putin’s narratives and views: the West is to
 
blame, has double standards and everything started with Kosovo.
 
blame, has double standards and everything started with Kosovo.
 +
 
Last, but not least, South Ossetia has just opened a “diplomatic representation” in Barcelona.
 
Last, but not least, South Ossetia has just opened a “diplomatic representation” in Barcelona.
Dmitri Medoyev, minister of foreign affairs of South Ossetia and close to Putin according to
+
[[Dmitri Medoyev]], minister of foreign affairs of South Ossetia and close to Putin according to
 
some sources, visited Barcelona in the last week of October to open the office.
 
some sources, visited Barcelona in the last week of October to open the office.
 +
 
See https://mundo.sputniknews.com/politica/201710251073463995-politica-relaciones-barcelona-tjinval/
 
See https://mundo.sputniknews.com/politica/201710251073463995-politica-relaciones-barcelona-tjinval/
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/26/inenglish/1509011964_600939.html
+
<small>https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/26/inenglish/1509011964_600939.html</small>
13
+
 
Why Spain? The Spain-Russia relationship
+
==Why Spain? The Spain-Russia relationship==
 
Therefore, the key questions are why/what for, i.e. what is Russia trying to achieve and
 
Therefore, the key questions are why/what for, i.e. what is Russia trying to achieve and
 
whether or not the Kremlin is interested in the splitting of Spain.
 
whether or not the Kremlin is interested in the splitting of Spain.
Why? The Spain-Russia relationship is fluent and friendly, but so far with relatively limited
+
 
 +
<big><u>'''Why?'''</u></big> The Spain-Russia relationship is fluent and friendly, but so far with relatively limited
 
political, social and economic links. Madrid’s position has sometimes been characterized as a
 
political, social and economic links. Madrid’s position has sometimes been characterized as a
 
balancing act between a pro-EU-NATO vector and a Russian-friendly one which sees Moscow
 
balancing act between a pro-EU-NATO vector and a Russian-friendly one which sees Moscow
Line 218: Line 234:
 
potentially promising source of opportunities for Spanish civil engineering and infrastructure
 
potentially promising source of opportunities for Spanish civil engineering and infrastructure
 
companies.
 
companies.
 +
 
Despite its understanding approach and traditionally low-profile on NATO’s Eastern flank
 
Despite its understanding approach and traditionally low-profile on NATO’s Eastern flank
 
(excluding the NATO Policing mission in the Baltics), Spain has now deployed 300 troops in
 
(excluding the NATO Policing mission in the Baltics), Spain has now deployed 300 troops in
Line 227: Line 244:
 
the grounds of defending freedom, and even supported the possibility of Spain leading the
 
the grounds of defending freedom, and even supported the possibility of Spain leading the
 
multinational battlegroup.
 
multinational battlegroup.
 +
 
These developments have probably not passed unnoticed in Moscow. Is this meddling in the
 
These developments have probably not passed unnoticed in Moscow. Is this meddling in the
 
Catalan issue some sort of reminder or message to Madrid from the Kremlin?
 
Catalan issue some sort of reminder or message to Madrid from the Kremlin?
 +
 
Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, there has been some significant pro-Russian activity
 
Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, there has been some significant pro-Russian activity
 
under the surface in Spain. In certain specific cases, there are indications of some sort of
 
under the surface in Spain. In certain specific cases, there are indications of some sort of
Line 235: Line 254:
 
MSR or PxC (including translation into Spanish of all the books by Alexander Dugin) iii)
 
MSR or PxC (including translation into Spanish of all the books by Alexander Dugin) iii)
 
meetings of Catalan and Andalusian secessionists with Russian politicians or members of the
 
meetings of Catalan and Andalusian secessionists with Russian politicians or members of the
Antiglobalization Movement of Russia5 iv) growing attention paid to Spanish domestic affairs
+
Antiglobalization Movement of Russia<ref>See http://anti-global.ru/?lang=en
by RT and Sputnik in Spanish.
+
</ref> iv) growing attention paid to Spanish domestic affairs by RT and Sputnik in Spanish.
 +
 
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (998).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (998).png]]
Russian chorus show in Barcelona January 2nd, 2016
+
 
 +
Russian chorus show in Barcelona January 2nd, 2016<br/>
 
This event triggered controversy and later on, the organizers, apologised. See
 
This event triggered controversy and later on, the organizers, apologised. See
https://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/ejercito-disculpas-estelada-concierto-Barcelona_0_2631936809.html
+
<small>https://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/ejercito-disculpas-estelada-concierto-Barcelona_0_2631936809.html</small>
5 See http://anti-global.ru/?lang=en
 
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (999).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (999).png]]
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9991).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9991).png]]
  
 +
Demonstration in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid, May 10th 2015<br/>
 +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOcaXuQDS_o
  
Demonstration in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid, May 10th 2015
+
Spanish [[antifa]] activists took part in the two “Anti-Fascists caravans to Donbass” organized by
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOcaXuQDS_o
 
Spanish antifa activists took part in the two “Anti-Fascists caravans to Donbass” organized by
 
 
the Banda Bassotti (an Italian ska band). High-quality videos of both trips were edited and
 
the Banda Bassotti (an Italian ska band). High-quality videos of both trips were edited and
 
uploaded on youtube. See for instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-0GEAdzQE,
 
uploaded on youtube. See for instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-0GEAdzQE,
Line 260: Line 281:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtorXNZpeE4 and Spanish volunteers on Russian First Channel
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtorXNZpeE4 and Spanish volunteers on Russian First Channel
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGdPgYGj2VY).
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGdPgYGj2VY).
15
+
 
 
“Donbas antifascist fight” is already part of the antifa imagery in Spain
 
“Donbas antifascist fight” is already part of the antifa imagery in Spain
  
Line 269: Line 290:
  
 
Athletic Bilbao-Shakhtar Donetsk, Bilbao September 2014
 
Athletic Bilbao-Shakhtar Donetsk, Bilbao September 2014
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9996).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9996).png]]
 
[[File:Dddddd.png]]
 
[[File:Dddddd.png]]
 +
 
Novorossiya TV showing a poster of support to ETA inmates
 
Novorossiya TV showing a poster of support to ETA inmates
  
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9998).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9998).png]]
  
Aleksandr Dugin, Madrid November 11th, 2013
+
[[Aleksandr Dugin]], Madrid November 11th, 2013
 +
 
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9999).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9999).png]]
  
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%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%8B-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-
 
%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%8B-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-
 
%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B8/
 
%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B8/
 +
 
Conference hold in Simferopol: http://crimea.ria.ru/press/20170411/1109869270.html
 
Conference hold in Simferopol: http://crimea.ria.ru/press/20170411/1109869270.html
 
On the Russian media: http://1tvcrimea.ru/pages/news/063180-iz-andaluzii-v-krym-na-poluostrov-pribyla-gruppapolitikov-
 
On the Russian media: http://1tvcrimea.ru/pages/news/063180-iz-andaluzii-v-krym-na-poluostrov-pribyla-gruppapolitikov-
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http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-ana-y-el-pna-somos-andaluces-viajan-a-rusia-y-crimea/
 
http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-ana-y-el-pna-somos-andaluces-viajan-a-rusia-y-crimea/
 
http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-asamblea-nacional-andaluza-contara-con-una-delegacion-permanente-en-crimea/
 
http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-asamblea-nacional-andaluza-contara-con-una-delegacion-permanente-en-crimea/
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99992).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99992).png]]
  
 
+
''[[Público]]'' (leftist media outlet) website April 28th 2015 www.publico.es publishing material produced by Sputnik
Público (leftist media outlet) website April 28th 2015 www.publico.es publishing material
 
produced by Sputnik
 
 
 
  
 
To sum up: this activity and these developments have had a limited political impact. So far, this
 
To sum up: this activity and these developments have had a limited political impact. So far, this
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Furthermore, Russia is setting up a communicative structure (RT, Sputnik, nurturing fake
 
Furthermore, Russia is setting up a communicative structure (RT, Sputnik, nurturing fake
 
experts plus influencing through personal discreet meetings) that in the mid-term will probably
 
experts plus influencing through personal discreet meetings) that in the mid-term will probably
be able to spread and fix views, narratives and topics in local agendas in Spain. Therefore, to
+
be able to spread and fix views, narratives and topics in local agendas in Spain. Therefore, '''to
 
overstate the current political impact of this activity would be as wrong as to neglect it
 
overstate the current political impact of this activity would be as wrong as to neglect it
entirely.
+
entirely.'''
  
Is Russia interested in the secession of Catalonia? In short, the answer
+
==Is Russia interested in the secession of Catalonia?==
is probably no. Though there are four good arguments to sustain the opposite: i) Russia
+
In short, the answer is probably no. Though there are four good arguments to sustain the opposite: i) Russia
 
considers a divided Europe a desirable goal ii) Catalan secession might have an impact on
 
considers a divided Europe a desirable goal ii) Catalan secession might have an impact on
 
similar movements within key EU countries such as Italy, Germany, etc. iii) a newly-born
 
similar movements within key EU countries such as Italy, Germany, etc. iii) a newly-born
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debates) and iv) a weakened Spain will definitely be more receptive to the Kremlin’s messages
 
debates) and iv) a weakened Spain will definitely be more receptive to the Kremlin’s messages
 
(and more given the fact that Spain’s main security concerns lie in the Southern flank).
 
(and more given the fact that Spain’s main security concerns lie in the Southern flank).
 +
 
However, the risks and potential gains supporting Madrid weigh probably more in the
 
However, the risks and potential gains supporting Madrid weigh probably more in the
 
Kremlin’s calculation: a) similar separatist movements in some regions of Russia might also be
 
Kremlin’s calculation: a) similar separatist movements in some regions of Russia might also be
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them as well) and c) supporting Madrid over this may grant Moscow leverage over Madrid (the
 
them as well) and c) supporting Madrid over this may grant Moscow leverage over Madrid (the
 
fourth economy in the Eurozone and still one of the most stable EU member states).
 
fourth economy in the Eurozone and still one of the most stable EU member states).
Then What for? Real leverage over Madrid is precisely what the Kremlin seems to be
+
 
 +
<u>'''Then <big>What for?</big>'''</u> Real leverage over Madrid is precisely what the Kremlin seems to be
 
looking for. From this point of view, beyond the Government and officials, Moscow sees the
 
looking for. From this point of view, beyond the Government and officials, Moscow sees the
 
conservative sectors as the most suitable target for its policies and operations (and they
 
conservative sectors as the most suitable target for its policies and operations (and they
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[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99993).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99993).png]]
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png]]
 +
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png]]
 
[[File:Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png]]
 
  
 
==Thinking ahead==
 
==Thinking ahead==
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one supposedly independent Spanish think tank aiming to gather representatives of the local
 
one supposedly independent Spanish think tank aiming to gather representatives of the local
 
civil society, including business sectors. Furthermore, RT in Spanish while mostly oriented to
 
civil society, including business sectors. Furthermore, RT in Spanish while mostly oriented to
Latin American audiences is also expanding is outreach in Spain. The stakes, then, are high and
+
[[Latin American]] audiences is also expanding is outreach in Spain. The stakes, then, are high and
 
the outcome of the battle is far from certain…
 
the outcome of the battle is far from certain…
 
 
 
  
 
{{SMWDocs}}
 
{{SMWDocs}}

Latest revision as of 04:44, 18 January 2020

An example of Projection by the Integrity Initiative. The Moncloa operation shows that the group itself has been involved in subverting the Spanish political process. This document accuses Russia of involvment in the Catalonia independence question.

Disclaimer (#3)Document.png report  by The Integrity Initiative/Spanish Cluster dated October, 2017
Subjects: Spain, Catalonia, Catalonia/Independence, Julian Assange
Example of: Integrity Initiative/Leak/2, Integrity Initiative/Projection
Source: 'Anonymous' (Link)

★ Start a Discussion about this document
Framing Russian meddling in the Catalan question



What do we know so far?

The Kremlin backs Madrid and considers the Catalan crisis an internal affair of Spain - at least at the official level and for the time being. Despite this public endorsement, Moscow hasn’t missed the opportunity to use an issue that -depending on how it is presented- can fit well within its overall narrative of a declining, undemocratic and troubled EU that receives “a taste of its own medicine” (i.e. “a colour revolution” or a “Kosovo-type of unilateral independence”). Thus, Russian mainstream media and pro-Russian voices on Twitter are paying a remarkable amount of attention to the Catalan question. Well-known figures such as Julian Assange or Edward Snowden have made a sudden and notorious appearance in the Catalan debates raising suspicions of potential meddling by the Kremlin. The most prominent Spanish newspaper, El País, has denounced the interference in the crisis by the “Russian propaganda machine”. These articles[1] have triggered a public debate, mostly in Spain but not only, about the level of the Kremlin’s involvement. While the answer to this question is not obvious, the role played by Russian media outlets and bots seems hardly deniable at this point. The following sections offer some insights, background information and suggestions to contextualize and interpret the (likely) Russian meddling in Spain.

Two hypotheses to explain why Russia would interfere in Spain

Hypothesis 1: Russia has activated its propaganda apparatus to contribute to destabilizing Spain as this fits its overall narrative about a dysfunctional, weakening and almost collapsing EU

This has been the prevailing interpretation by external observers. It is the most likely one, but some nuances related to the specificities of Spain-Russia relationship are required in order to figure out what Russia wants to achieve from it.

Hypothesis 2: Catalan pro-independence activists bought Assange’s support.

Taking into account unsuccessful attempts by Catalan separatists to attract international attention before the events of October 1st, this option cannot be completely ruled out. It seems clear that Assange has been receiving support from Catalan nationalist activists and not only because some of his tweets were in Catalan. On several occasions, he reacted quickly and was well aware of nuances that only locals or those really familiar with the matter would know. This is something which, as far as is known, is not the case of Assange. These two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and actually a merging of both is also possible. Only the order of who started and designed the first steps would change.

As mentioned above, the Catalan issue can fit well within the overall Russian narrative depicting an undemocratic and chaotic EU receiving “a taste of its own medicine”. This helps to justify authoritarian measures at home and to discredit the West and its values as a mere exercise in hypocrisy. Below the first and so far, the most controversial tweet published by Assange (setting the sensationalist tone of his tweets and frame of the Catalan issue):

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1.png

One day and a half later, the Catalan Vice-President (regional Government) thanked him.

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (2).png

Other examples:

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (3).png

WikiLeaks has been publishing both in English and in Catalan and giving practical support to some Generalitat (Catalan regional government) initiatives

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (4).png

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (5).png

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (6).png

Assange has been actively involved and at times playing a highly-visible role

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (7).png

Assange’s tweets proved to be well connected to local on-going events and nuances

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (8).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (91).png

According to El País, Russian bots increased by 2,000% the impact of the Catalan question on Twitter. Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (92).png

Further investigations seem to confirm this point:

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (93).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (94).png

According to research conducted by J.J. Patrick, a former police officer who is now a freelance journalist, Assange’s activity is part of a “focused disinformation campaign [devoted] to international audiences”.

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (95).png

Source: https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903

In this article, it is worth watching the two videos comparing patterns of how news-spread across social networks when there is or not a “concentrated deployment of a Kremlin-tasked asset”

Mainstream Russian media also stepped enthusiastically into the issue.

Sputnik’s headline reads as follows: “Pro-independence: a contagious time-bomb within a deaf State”

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (96).png

Civil war, violence, gunshots, misleading maps, hell…

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (97).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (98).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (991).png

“European countries that have expressed some sort of official support to Catalonia”

The usual suspects jumped in as well:

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (992).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (993).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (994).png

The DFRLAB research published on September 28 concluded that Sputnik has been more blatantly biased while the coverage of RT has been more balanced and professional.[2] The DFRLAB considers that some attributions and Kremlin links taken for granted by El País articles are questionable.

Regarding the RT coverage: the quality of its coverage throughout September can be attributed to the work of the main correspondent in Madrid (a Spanish journalist previously based in Moscow) who was deployed in Catalonia. In October, as the crisis deepened, RT changed the team in the field. What is remarkable is that despite the fact that Spanish nationals form a significant portion of the RT team (including those based in Madrid), RT decided to deploy two young Latin American journalists. This decision can be justified by presenting a more “neutral” approach (in order to prevent a Spanish view non-sympathetic with Catalan nationalists’ one from setting the tone of the coverage). The coverage since then was anything but neutral, giving voice almost exclusively to the “hundreds of injured and repressed civilians” and contributing to over-dramatise the violent nature of the events (beyond the unwise use of police force in some limited instances during the events of October 1st).[3]

RT keeps the flame up…

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (995).png

“Tanks in the streets of Barcelona”: Spain and Catalonia on the verge of a violent outbreak https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/253812-espana-cataluna-violencia-conflicto October 28th

“Has Spain the military capacity to intervene in Catalonia?” October 27th https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/luis-gonzalo-segura/253776-espana-capacidad-militar-intervenir

President Putin has also made a couple of remarkable public statements on Catalonia over the last weeks. Firstly, on October 4th during a ceremony with the new ambassadors recently appointed to Russia, among them the Spanish one. Putin declared that Russia considers this “an internal affair of the Kingdom of Spain[4] and hoped that “Spain will overcome the crisis”. What it is remarkable is that Putin explicitly mentioned “the Catalan referendum” conferring implicitly some legitimacy to it. Besides, while he was officially backing Madrid, he was also contributing to the Russian narrative that overstates the dramatism of the situation. Of course, these two points might be considered too subtle to elaborate any explanation on their ground, but they confirm that the Kremlin is keeping a close eye on the crisis. Here the video of Putin’s statement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXzVZ_XsMOk

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (996).png

Note the emphasis here on referring to Catalonia as an Autonomous Community

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (997).png

Putin made his second public comment on Catalonia during a meeting of the Valdai Club held on October 19th. His words were:

The situation in Spain clearly shows how fragile stability can be even in a prosperous

and established state. Who could have expected, even just recently, that the discussion of the status of Catalonia, which has a long history, would result in an acute political crisis?

Russia's position here is known. Everything that is happening is an internal matter for Spain

and must be settled based on Spanish law in accordance with democratic traditions. We are aware that the country’s leadership is taking steps towards this end. In the case of Catalonia, we saw the European Union and a number of other states unanimously condemn the supporters of independence.

You know, in this regard, I cannot help but note that more thought should have gone into this

earlier. What, no one was aware of these centuries-old disagreements in Europe? They were, were they not? Of course, they were. However, at one point they actually welcomed the disintegration of a number of states in Europe without hiding their joy.

Why were they so unthinking, driven by fleeting political considerations and their desire

to please – I will put it bluntly – their big brother in Washington, in providing their unconditional support to the secession of Kosovo, thus provoking similar processes in other regions of Europe and the world?

You may remember that when Crimea also declared its independence, and then – following

the referendum – its decision to become part of Russia, this was not welcomed for some reason. Now we have Catalonia. There is a similar issue in another region, Kurdistan. Perhaps this list is far from exhaustive. But we have to ask ourselves, what are we going to do? What should we think about it?

The full speech can be found here http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882

The message is crystal clear and consistent with Putin’s narratives and views: the West is to blame, has double standards and everything started with Kosovo.

Last, but not least, South Ossetia has just opened a “diplomatic representation” in Barcelona. Dmitri Medoyev, minister of foreign affairs of South Ossetia and close to Putin according to some sources, visited Barcelona in the last week of October to open the office.

See https://mundo.sputniknews.com/politica/201710251073463995-politica-relaciones-barcelona-tjinval/ https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/26/inenglish/1509011964_600939.html

Why Spain? The Spain-Russia relationship

Therefore, the key questions are why/what for, i.e. what is Russia trying to achieve and whether or not the Kremlin is interested in the splitting of Spain.

Why? The Spain-Russia relationship is fluent and friendly, but so far with relatively limited political, social and economic links. Madrid’s position has sometimes been characterized as a balancing act between a pro-EU-NATO vector and a Russian-friendly one which sees Moscow mainly through an economic lens and as an almost-indispensable partner in dealing with some key international issues. From an economic point of view, while the current total figures are modest, Russia is considered by Spanish authorities as a key partner in tourism and real estate, two crucial sectors for the Spanish economic recovery. In addition, Russia is seen as a potentially promising source of opportunities for Spanish civil engineering and infrastructure companies.

Despite its understanding approach and traditionally low-profile on NATO’s Eastern flank (excluding the NATO Policing mission in the Baltics), Spain has now deployed 300 troops in Latvia as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence multinational battlegroups in the Baltic countries and Poland. Spain is deploying a mechanized infantry company in armored fighting vehicles including Leopard tanks which are being deployed abroad for the first time ever in history, together with cyber security experts in Estonia. In July 2017, PM Mariano Rajoy made a strong endorsement of the mission during his visit to the Spanish troops in Adazi (Latvia) on the grounds of defending freedom, and even supported the possibility of Spain leading the multinational battlegroup.

These developments have probably not passed unnoticed in Moscow. Is this meddling in the Catalan issue some sort of reminder or message to Madrid from the Kremlin?

Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, there has been some significant pro-Russian activity under the surface in Spain. In certain specific cases, there are indications of some sort of undisclosed Russian official support. This activity has consisted mostly in i) antifa movements supporting “Donbas antifascist fight” throughout Spain ii) links with far-right groups like the MSR or PxC (including translation into Spanish of all the books by Alexander Dugin) iii) meetings of Catalan and Andalusian secessionists with Russian politicians or members of the Antiglobalization Movement of Russia[5] iv) growing attention paid to Spanish domestic affairs by RT and Sputnik in Spanish.

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (998).png

Russian chorus show in Barcelona January 2nd, 2016
This event triggered controversy and later on, the organizers, apologised. See https://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/ejercito-disculpas-estelada-concierto-Barcelona_0_2631936809.html

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (999).png

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9991).png

Demonstration in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid, May 10th 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOcaXuQDS_o

Spanish antifa activists took part in the two “Anti-Fascists caravans to Donbass” organized by the Banda Bassotti (an Italian ska band). High-quality videos of both trips were edited and uploaded on youtube. See for instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-0GEAdzQE, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RAmQRk7d0o, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5HpLhuN8Ys. During the second tour in May 2015 the caravan was accompanied by a reporter from Tele Sur (Venezuelan public TV which has a partnership with RT) -see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvIRSTOuJYg.The same group or another connected to them organized some anti-Ukrainian rallies in Spain throughout 2014. Though irrelevant in terms of participants or political influence, these were extensively covered by RT (see for instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtorXNZpeE4 and Spanish volunteers on Russian First Channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGdPgYGj2VY).

“Donbas antifascist fight” is already part of the antifa imagery in Spain

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9992).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9993).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9994).png Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9995).png

Athletic Bilbao-Shakhtar Donetsk, Bilbao September 2014

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9996).png Dddddd.png

Novorossiya TV showing a poster of support to ETA inmates

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9998).png

Aleksandr Dugin, Madrid November 11th, 2013

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (9999).png

Barcelona October 2016, presentation of one of Dugin’s books translated into Spanish at Casa Rusia, an institution devoted to public diplomacy that functions under the umbrella of the Russkyi Mir foundation. Some of these individuals (belonging to far right groups) are occasional contributors to RT and regular ones to the Katehon website which has a remarkable Spanish version.

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99991).png

Andalusian delegation to Crimea in April 2017 that established “official links” and gave “support to Crimea’s annexation by Russia”. The “delegation” was led by a nobody who chairs a fringe organization called “The Andalusian National Assembly” which aims to achieve the independence of Andalusia.

List of delegation members

http://ldpr-rk.ru/%D0%B2-%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%82%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2- %D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%8B-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9- %D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B8/

Conference hold in Simferopol: http://crimea.ria.ru/press/20170411/1109869270.html On the Russian media: http://1tvcrimea.ru/pages/news/063180-iz-andaluzii-v-krym-na-poluostrov-pribyla-gruppapolitikov- i-obschestvennikov-i

Since he visited Crimea, the head of the delegation (a perfect example of a useful idiot) has been raising the issue of lifting the sanctions; so far only in small news outlets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmYDEGV7Mz4 http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-ana-y-el-pna-somos-andaluces-viajan-a-rusia-y-crimea/ http://www.lahorademalaga.com/la-asamblea-nacional-andaluza-contara-con-una-delegacion-permanente-en-crimea/

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99992).png

Público (leftist media outlet) website April 28th 2015 www.publico.es publishing material produced by Sputnik

To sum up: this activity and these developments have had a limited political impact. So far, this activity has been restricted to very specific niches, mostly on both extremes. However, step by step, Russia seems to be establishing an extensive network of pawns here and there. Furthermore, Russia is setting up a communicative structure (RT, Sputnik, nurturing fake experts plus influencing through personal discreet meetings) that in the mid-term will probably be able to spread and fix views, narratives and topics in local agendas in Spain. Therefore, to overstate the current political impact of this activity would be as wrong as to neglect it entirely.

Is Russia interested in the secession of Catalonia?

In short, the answer is probably no. Though there are four good arguments to sustain the opposite: i) Russia considers a divided Europe a desirable goal ii) Catalan secession might have an impact on similar movements within key EU countries such as Italy, Germany, etc. iii) a newly-born Catalan state would probably be an easy target for Russian intel and diplomacy (Russia’s capacity as a permanent member of the UNSC has been highlighted many times in Catalan debates) and iv) a weakened Spain will definitely be more receptive to the Kremlin’s messages (and more given the fact that Spain’s main security concerns lie in the Southern flank).

However, the risks and potential gains supporting Madrid weigh probably more in the Kremlin’s calculation: a) similar separatist movements in some regions of Russia might also be encouraged b) it is well known and documented that Russian oligarchs and those associated with the mafia have properties and investments in the tourist and real estate sector on the Catalan coast (the financial storm that the issue is already causing might have an impact on them as well) and c) supporting Madrid over this may grant Moscow leverage over Madrid (the fourth economy in the Eurozone and still one of the most stable EU member states).

Then What for? Real leverage over Madrid is precisely what the Kremlin seems to be looking for. From this point of view, beyond the Government and officials, Moscow sees the conservative sectors as the most suitable target for its policies and operations (and they probably consider leftists as useful idiots but not the most interesting targets). Far right supporters and conservatives disappointed with the ruling (and moderate) Popular Party show a growing sympathy for Putin’s Russia. While this sector is not yet politically relevant, the rise of Spanish nationalism as a reaction to the Catalan issue will probably trigger the growth of parties like VOX (direct links with Moscow seem tenuous so far). That would explain why pro- Russian conservative websites are now blaming Soros for the Catalan crisis. This story has been taken up by the most conservative Spanish newspapers.

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99993).png

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png

Integrity Framing Russian meddling in CAT1 (99994).png

Thinking ahead

Catalonia is already part of Russia’s big narrative about the West; but in the same manner, Russian meddling is also part of the debates in Spain. This represents a clear window of opportunity as it has raised awareness of the threat posed by Russian disinformation campaigns. However, Spain still is, as almost if not all EU countries, vulnerable through money (business sector). The Russian Embassy in Madrid seems to be supporting the establishment of one supposedly independent Spanish think tank aiming to gather representatives of the local civil society, including business sectors. Furthermore, RT in Spanish while mostly oriented to Latin American audiences is also expanding is outreach in Spain. The stakes, then, are high and the outcome of the battle is far from certain…


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References

  1. See “How Russian news networks are using Catalonia to destabilize Europe”, September 25th 2017 https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/25/inenglish/1506323273_063367.html “Russian meddling machine sets sights on Catalonia”, September 28th 2017 https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/26/inenglish/1506413477_994601.html “Russian “hackers” help keep banned Catalan referendum census site online” September 28th 2017 https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/28/inenglish/1506588970_026442.html
  2. See https://medium.com/dfrlab/electionwatch-russia-and-referendums-in-catalonia-192743efcd76
  3. Of course, it can hardly be said that RT was alone in this business. See for instance Peter Preston, “Violence in Catalonia needed closer scrutiny in age of fake news”, The Guardian, 8 October 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/08/catalonia-demo-injuries-fact-checking
  4. All emphasis added
  5. See http://anti-global.ru/?lang=en
  1. ^