Talk:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

archived discussion are here

Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?

As for Gorbi's reasoning, I don't know and I'm not that sure. It appears he was "led to believe" by U.S. Secretary of State James Baker. Kohl and Bush. They appeared to have tried to make him believe if Germany joins NATO, NATO would stay there and not have to move east. They appear to compare it to be better than Germany just being independent again until it starts some (....) again. Gorbi wanted E-Germany to become a sort of Moldova. They say Gorbi said yes as he was surprised with the speed of Germany's calls for unification. I tend to think he was pressured to believe it, but thought it helped him for the coming Soviet coup and there were to many deep state faction trying to position themselves for the August coup. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early#_edn1

I think a missing piece here is what and who Putin did meet in '91 after leaving the KGB - according to him was Gorbi was becoming quite senile - before being exposed for fraud by Marina Salye should help to solve this.

That there were assurances in those negotiations, that NATO would not move eastwards, is not the question anymore, there were. "In return for German unification, the west promises not to let nato advance further eastward" (ARD). I believe that assurances in meetings amongst statesmen had up to that point some sort binding effect, but the US then played stupid, turned around and said: "We're not expanding, they're asking to join" ... integrating the KGB networks into NATO as they went. Anyway, if someone has the answer why the Russians did not make this binding in writing, it would be much appreciated. -- Sunvalley (talk) 23:28, 3 March 2022 (UTC)

Gorbi says it was only about "new military structures created in the eastern part of the country" with no promises elsewhere, I still don't see it as the explicit promising of no expansion beyond de DDR. At best the beyond DDR part would be an informal guarantee imho. Which is suspicious and a quite weak ploy of Gorbi of its own, but plausible reading the declassified files. As to why, most witnesses suggest the combi of Gorbi preparing for the demise of Union & getting an informal financial injection to keep it still floating), as the USSR was paid $40-70 billion by the DDR as "price for reunification". --Jun (talk) 00:32, 4 March 2022 (UTC)

I found https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early. It says: "Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?” The panel included Mark Kramer: the “no-NATO-enlargement pledge” was a “myth”. And: "the U.S. was playing a double game in 1990, leading Gorbachev to believe NATO would be subsumed in a new European security structure" Urban (talk) 16:11, 4 March 2022 (UTC)

I would wonder what the discussion actually is, given what is known today, and has been spoken (and been reported about at the time). But when one side has other interests than cooperation and/or keeping to agreements, then this discussion becomes more understandable. Gorbi said things to the effect (ca 2009) that the west has pulled a fast one on Russia (these are mainstream sources). There is media manipulation about what he said, standard falsification, which in no small part (I guess) is helped along by historians with an agenda, like this whack who in his exclusive interviews manages to get him (Gorbi) to say the things he want him to say. If you read the Welt article, this guy, Ignaz Lozo, completely plays down what has been discussed generally, and what Gorbatschow has said just a few years ago .. Lozo also plays that down. Urban's link to nsarchive.gwu.edu practically explains it all (and highlights gravity of it) .. yes nothing in writing, but assurances which brings me back to the point of agreements amongst statesmen.

-- Sunvalley (talk) 03:14, 7 April 2022 (UTC)

Role of international lending institutions

At the time massive currency speculation let to a devaluation of the Rubel. Likely, Gorbi felt he needs cold hard cash (from the West). Urban (talk) 04:00, 4 March 2022 (UTC)

...and I got a feeling that Putin is facing this same urge towards cold hard cash very soon. The role of banks in conflict is "overlooked" in history, but more visible in this case, where weapons deals are discussed publicly. Urban (talk) 07:44, 8 March 2022 (UTC)

50K

What you have thrown out recently, will that be gone or are you getting those things to sub pages in the near future? Otherwise I would probably do that, at least partially. - Jun? -- Sunvalley (talk) 17:42, 3 October 2022 (UTC)

Questionable parts

https://wikispooks.com/w/index.php?title=2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine&type=revision&diff=252577&oldid=252160

The freedom convoy was inspiring other movements worldwide and and non-commercially-controlled media such as Joe Rogan were reaching an audience of millions with a nuanced explanation of COVID-19/Purposes</ref> Justin Trudeau had frozen the bank accounts of the Canadian truckers who were protesting against government overreach, and direct action was spreading globally For this reason a change of topic was opportune. - This needs a source pointing out what was written, as the freedom convoy wasn't the main focus in the media in early February. That Joe Rogan part was decent, but had no episode or example being given.

It is interesting that Klaus Schwab has named Putin as a WEF Young Global Leader, that the COVID project since 2019 was heavily staffed by members of the WEF (as well as Bilderberg), and that their influence in Russia is sizable when it comes to pandemic related matters (see Riley Waggamans reporting from Russia).- Putin and his WEF link was already placed on the page.

• At the beginning of the war, western pundits claimed extraordinary losses for Russia and pushed many minor stories as major successes for Ukraine - by mid 2022 most realize that Russia has the upper hand - a former Russian general interviewed for RT, based on his own analysis, says that most likely the whole of Ukraine will be claimed by Russia, since: "If even one square meter of land remains under the rule of the current Kiev regime, it will immediately be filled with weapons, and they will fire from there at Russia, at the Russians." - The thumb image that is suppose to show change in media optimism has no referral or explanation as to what the picture is, and there are numourous headers where it could've been placed instead of just as "new development". In the current news cycle, every day is new development. We get complaints on Reddit that there is no new content after one day. You'll never satisfy them, So I'd say, improve the quality of the page instead of adding more to the page.

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• An exchange that envisaged NATO countries giving weapons systems to Ukraine, receiving compensation from stock of other NATO countries, has left some (like Bulgaria and Slovakia) without airplanes to police their own airspace. The chancellery of Scholz appears to not sign required documents for the direct delivery of promised equipment and the exchange delivery appears not to be working as promised as well. - this has a "cn", everything with "cn" was an easy target. This can come back easily.

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• At the end of April 2022, Rheinmetall wanted to send 88 Leopard 1 to Ukraine (along with other numbers for other weapons systems). The use of the number 88 and it's connotation and symbology was noted by Florian Rötzer. The Chief Operating Officer for Rheinmetall get's lost for four days in mid May 2022. While German press writes mostly clueless articles about the matter, a Swiss publication notes: "Kutz (Thorsten Kutz) may have been an appealing kidnapping target for Russian agents because of his insider knowledge." (in another incident, possibly unrelated, the drinks at a social gathering of the SPD are spiked in July 2022) - this is placed back.

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• The conflict in the Donbas region was lingering in a stalemate since 2014, but clearly preparations have been made over years on the Ukrainian side (with supply of training and equipment from the outside) to be able to escalate at some point - therefor a connection between the escalation of the war and the Covid event can be argued. - This had no internal linage or referral.

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What is currently stuffed in section 'NATO' is not sorted, I think best is a new section for military aid (which is also in 'Reactions' but should be it's own main section) could come together with PMC activity. -- Sunvalley (talk) 00:41, 15 October 2022 (UTC)