Difference between revisions of "2023 Somerton and Frome by-election"

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The '''2023 Somerton and Frome by-election''' will take place on 20 July 2023 following the resignation of constituency MP [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Warburton David Warburton] on 17 June 2023.<ref>''[https://www.somerset.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/electoral-services/somerton-and-frome-constituency-by-election/ "Somerton and Frome by-election"]''</ref>
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The '''2023 Somerton and Frome by-election''' took place on 20 July 2023 following the resignation of [[Tory]] MP [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Warburton David Warburton] on 17 June 2023.<ref>''[https://www.somerset.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/electoral-services/somerton-and-frome-constituency-by-election/ "Somerton and Frome by-election"]''</ref>
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Liberal Democrat [[Sarah Dyke]] was elected as [[Member of Parliament]] for the seat with 21,187 votes (54.6%) – a majority of 11,008 (28.4%) on a swing of 29.0% from the Conservatives to the [[Liberal Democrats]].<ref>''[https://news.sky.com/story/lib-dems-win-somerton-and-frome-by-election-after-ex-tory-mp-stood-down-following-drug-scandal-12923650 "2023 by-elections: Lib Dems win Somerton and Frome after ex-Tory MP stood down following drug scandal"]''</ref>
  
 
==Constituency==
 
==Constituency==
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==Candidates==
 
==Candidates==
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The [[BBC]] reports that eight candidates are vying to become the new MP for Somerton and Frome, following the resignation of David Warburton. Eight videos featuring candidates appear in alphabetical order below:
 
* [[Lorna Corke]], Christian Peoples Alliance
 
* [[Lorna Corke]], Christian Peoples Alliance
 
* [[Martin Dimery]], [[Green Party]]
 
* [[Martin Dimery]], [[Green Party]]
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* [[Sarah Dyke]], [[Liberal Democrats]]
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* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Dyke Sarah Dyke,] [[Liberal Democrats]]
 
* [[Bruce Evans]], [[Reform UK]]
 
* [[Bruce Evans]], [[Reform UK]]
 
* [[Neil Guild]], [[Labour Party]]
 
* [[Neil Guild]], [[Labour Party]]
 
* [[Rosie Mitchell]], [https://www.gofundme.com/f/independent-socialist-for-somerton-and-frome Independent Socialist]
 
* [[Rosie Mitchell]], [https://www.gofundme.com/f/independent-socialist-for-somerton-and-frome Independent Socialist]
 
* [[Faye Purbrick]], [[Conservative Party]]
 
* [[Faye Purbrick]], [[Conservative Party]]
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* [[Peter Richardson]], [[UKIP]]
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* [[Peter Richardson]], [[UKIP]]<ref>''[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp4kppkwxn7o "Watch: Somerton and Frome by-election candidates"]''</ref>
  
 
==Betting odds==
 
==Betting odds==
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"Rosie stands with the people she would represent and would fight on their behalf." [[Ken Loach]] – Film Director July 2023<ref>''[https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10160874092734938&set=a.428906869937&comment_id=953294802549280 "Ken Loach endorses Rosie Mitchell"]''</ref>
 
"Rosie stands with the people she would represent and would fight on their behalf." [[Ken Loach]] – Film Director July 2023<ref>''[https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10160874092734938&set=a.428906869937&comment_id=953294802549280 "Ken Loach endorses Rosie Mitchell"]''</ref>
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===Latest prediction===
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[[File:Rosie_Alan.jpeg|300px|right|thumb|45,000 leaflets could equate to 17,200 votes]]
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On 12 July 2023, [[Rosie Mitchell]] tweeted:{{QB|
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"Yesterday my trusty Alan and I collected 45,000 leaflets from Frome Printing Company and this morning we deliver them to the Mail centre in Bristol so they can start winging their way to you all with the help of our (should be renationalised) postal service!" ❤️ #VoteRosie #DIY<ref>''[https://twitter.com/IndySocialRosie/status/1679019871516983297 "Yesterday my trusty Alan and I collected 45,000 leaflets from Frome Printing Company and this morning we deliver them to the Mail centre in Bristol so they can start winging their way to you all with the help of our (should be renationalised) postal service!"]''</ref>}}
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On a turnout of 60%, this is the latest predicted result of the by-election:{{QB|
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* CPA 1%
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* [[Conservative Party]] 20%
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* [[Green Party]] 6%
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* Independent Socialist 33%
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* [[Labour Party]] 7%
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* [[Liberal Democrat]] 30%
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* [[Reform UK]] 1%
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* [[UKIP]] 2%<ref>''[https://frome.nub.news/news/local-news/frome-by-election-candidate-rosie-mitchell-192080 "On track in the Frome by-election, Rosie Mitchell has a clear direction of travel"]''</ref>}}
  
 
===Ignored by the MSM===
 
===Ignored by the MSM===
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:"Scared I might show the major parties up?" #VoteRosie #Rosie4SomertonAndFrome<ref>''[https://twitter.com/IndySocialRosie/status/1679407532219965441 "Why are the MSM ignoring my candidacy?]''</ref>}}
 
:"Scared I might show the major parties up?" #VoteRosie #Rosie4SomertonAndFrome<ref>''[https://twitter.com/IndySocialRosie/status/1679407532219965441 "Why are the MSM ignoring my candidacy?]''</ref>}}
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==Result==
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Somerset County Council announced the result of the Somerton and Frome by-election, as follows:
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* Lorna Corke (Christian Peoples Alliance): 256
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* Martin Dimery (Green): 3,944
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* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Dyke Sarah Dyke (Liberal Democrat): 21,187]
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* Bruce Evans (Reform UK): 1,303
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* Neil Guild (Labour): 1,009
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* Rosie Mitchell (Independent): 635
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* Faye Purbrick (Conservative): 10,179
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* Peter Richardson (UK Independence Party): 275
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* Number of spoiled ballots: 97
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* Total votes: 38,885
 +
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* Electorate: 87,921
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* Turnout: 44.23%
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* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Dyke Sarah Dyke] has been elected as MP for the constituency.<ref>''[https://www.somerset.gov.uk/somerton-and-frome-parliamentary-by-election-result/ "Somerton and Frome Parliamentary by election result"]''</ref>
  
 
{{SMWDocs}}
 
{{SMWDocs}}
 
==References==
 
==References==
 
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Latest revision as of 22:14, 21 July 2023

Event.png 2023 Somerton and Frome by-election  Rdf-entity.pngRdf-icon.png
SandF BE.jpeg
Date20 July 2023

The 2023 Somerton and Frome by-election took place on 20 July 2023 following the resignation of Tory MP David Warburton on 17 June 2023.[1]

Liberal Democrat Sarah Dyke was elected as Member of Parliament for the seat with 21,187 votes (54.6%) – a majority of 11,008 (28.4%) on a swing of 29.0% from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.[2]

Constituency

Somerton (pronounced summertun) and Frome (pronounced phroom) is a rural constituency in Somerset in the South West of England. The constituency includes the market towns of Somerton, Frome, Castle Cary, Langport, Wincanton, Templecombe, Bruton and Martock.

Frome, the largest community in the constituency acts as a small commercial centre for the surrounding areas.

Candidates

The BBC reports that eight candidates are vying to become the new MP for Somerton and Frome, following the resignation of David Warburton. Eight videos featuring candidates appear in alphabetical order below:

Betting odds

Bookmaker William Hill has now opened betting on the outcome of the by-election to be held on July 20 - and the current odds reveal one clear front-runner. The Liberal Democrats are priced at just 1/20 to take the seat. In simpler terms, the challengers have been given a 95 per cent implied probability of winning the by-election.

On the other hand, the Conservative Party has been priced at 10/1 - or a 9 per cent implied probability of retaining the seat.

The Labour Party has been priced at 25/1, while Reform UK and the Green Party have been given outside odds of 250/1.[4]

Rosie is favourite

Rosie Mitchell says:

I’m Rosie and I am standing as an Independent Socialist in the upcoming by-election. This fundraiser started out to cover the deposit to stand independently, after funding that in under 24 hours (thanks to your generosity and solidarity) we are now trying to push our campaign to reach as many people as possible.
Any further donations will be used for printing election materials - leaflets, posters, etc. So we can share our message with the electorate and push real socialist policy to the wider community.
Your support is hugely appreciated by myself and the wonderful team making this campaign possible. We are many! ❤️[5]

Endorsed by Ken Loach

"Honoured having Ken Loach's endorsement"

On 10 July 2023, Rosie Mitchell tweeted:

"I had the immense privilege to meet the wonderful @KenLoachSixteen yesterday afternoon.
"He took the time to sit with us and impart some wisdom and advice. A true gentleman, what an honour to have him endorse this campaign." ❤️ #VoteRosie #RosieForSomertonAndFrome[6]

Ken Loach endorses Rosie Mitchell:

"The current crisis needs radical changes. I support Rosie Mitchell. She stands for:

  • returning the collapsing NHS to it’s first principles and removing the profiteers from health care;
  • taking back our public utilities like water, to public ownership;
  • an integrated transport system, owned by the people – as a railway worker, Rosie knows what she is talking about;
  • an end to fossil fuels, action not words on climate change;
  • peace and human rights, not slavishly following the USA’s lead.

"Rosie stands with the people she would represent and would fight on their behalf." Ken Loach – Film Director July 2023[7]

Latest prediction

45,000 leaflets could equate to 17,200 votes

On 12 July 2023, Rosie Mitchell tweeted:

"Yesterday my trusty Alan and I collected 45,000 leaflets from Frome Printing Company and this morning we deliver them to the Mail centre in Bristol so they can start winging their way to you all with the help of our (should be renationalised) postal service!" ❤️ #VoteRosie #DIY[8]

On a turnout of 60%, this is the latest predicted result of the by-election:

Ignored by the MSM

Rosie Mitchell's manifesto for change

On 13 July 2023, Rosie Mitchell tweeted:

"Why are the MSM ignoring my candidacy?
"Channel 4 News didn’t even ask to speak to me and I wasn’t invited to the @BBCPoliticsWest live hustings in Somerton. How is that impartiality?
"Scared I might show the major parties up?" #VoteRosie #Rosie4SomertonAndFrome[10]

Result

Somerset County Council announced the result of the Somerton and Frome by-election, as follows:

  • Lorna Corke (Christian Peoples Alliance): 256
  • Martin Dimery (Green): 3,944
  • Bruce Evans (Reform UK): 1,303
  • Neil Guild (Labour): 1,009
  • Rosie Mitchell (Independent): 635
  • Faye Purbrick (Conservative): 10,179
  • Peter Richardson (UK Independence Party): 275
  • Number of spoiled ballots: 97
  • Total votes: 38,885
  • Electorate: 87,921
  • Turnout: 44.23%


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References

  1. ↑ "Somerton and Frome by-election"
  2. ↑ "2023 by-elections: Lib Dems win Somerton and Frome after ex-Tory MP stood down following drug scandal"
  3. ↑ "Watch: Somerton and Frome by-election candidates"
  4. ↑ "One party emerges as massive favourite to win Somerton and Frome by-election"
  5. ↑ "Independent Socialist for Somerton and Frome"
  6. ↑ "What an honour to have Ken Loach endorse this campaign"
  7. ↑ "Ken Loach endorses Rosie Mitchell"
  8. ↑ "Yesterday my trusty Alan and I collected 45,000 leaflets from Frome Printing Company and this morning we deliver them to the Mail centre in Bristol so they can start winging their way to you all with the help of our (should be renationalised) postal service!"
  9. ↑ "On track in the Frome by-election, Rosie Mitchell has a clear direction of travel"
  10. ↑ "Why are the MSM ignoring my candidacy?
  11. ↑ "Somerton and Frome Parliamentary by election result"
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