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Revision as of 10:31, 19 October 2014 by Urban (talk | contribs) (peak oil draft)
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Testing Area

The worldwide oil production is in decline, however, global demand is rising.

Peak Oil

The geologist M. King Hubbert successfully predicted in 1956 that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.[1]

The peak of production follows a logistic distribution function according to Hubbert, with a distinct maximum. When the peak is reached differs from region to region. It depends amongst other things on the profit margin per barrel. Put in simple words: oil is about to run out.

Global Demand

Global demand is rising. www.eia.gov

The Price of Oil

The price of oil is crucial for a number of reasons:

  • The Petro-Dollar system replaced the Gold Standart of Bretton Woods: oil is traded for dollars by OPEC and by way of weapons deals and military contracts recycled into the US economy. The value of the dollar depends heavily on the availability of oil in the world market.
  • The world economy depends on oil and it is not feasable to replace it with other resources in a short time.

The price of oil is managed for constant demand by the big oil companies (Wizards of Money) which translates to constant demand for dollars.

Implications

When the price of oil gets too high, global demand for dollars declines. This scenario seems inevitable on the long run. On the short run, the one who controls the regions which are farthest from peak has maximum leverage to control the price of oil. After Saudi Arabia, Iran and Irak comes the Caspian Basin (yet to be explored).

As no other than the Petro-Dollar monetary non-system is in sight, seeking "stability" becomes a fetish, enshuring future profits flow in the same direction as they do at present. No price seems too high to pay for "stability". Stan Goff assumes that eventually this may lead to fashistoid population control measures when profits are no longer available to the bulk of the population in the western world. see interview 16:20ff.


Abiotic ?

This scenario does not depend on the question if oil is of abiotic origin or not. The question is that of availability - not of quantity.

  1. M. King Hubbert. "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels" (PDF). Drilling and Production Practice (1956) American Petroleum Institute & Shell Development Co. Publication No. 95, See pp 9-11, 21-22.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").